#通货膨胀与物价 Seeing the latest statements from Federal Reserve voting members, I was reminded of recent conversations with a few friends. Their most concerned issue all points to the same thing—prices.

Goolsbee's attitude is quite interesting: on one hand, he is optimistic that interest rates may significantly decline next year; on the other hand, he emphasizes cautious waiting because businesses and consumers are highly worried about rising prices. This seemingly contradictory stance actually reflects the current economic reality—although there are signs of easing inflation, it has not yet reached stable targets.

Four and a half years of inflation above the target, with progress stagnating in recent months—what do these data behind the numbers represent? They are the true reflection of the prices of goods in your and my shopping carts. Against this backdrop, I suggest everyone be more cautious in asset allocation:

First, do not be blinded by optimistic expectations of rate cuts and go all-in prematurely. Policy turning points often lag, and the time lag may be longer than you imagine.

Second, maintain a moderate defensive position. Inflationary pressures still exist, and the allocation ratios of cash, bonds, and anti-inflation assets deserve a re-evaluation.

Third, a long-term mindset is most important. Short-term market fluctuations are driven by policy signals, but your financial goals are driven by time. Staying unaffected by noise allows you to go further.

Steadiness is about staying clear-headed amid uncertainty.