Q4 delivery just wrapped up. Looking back at the market structure, one obvious change is the accelerating increase in the weight of derivatives. The market is becoming increasingly dominated by leverage and derivatives players, which directly compresses the volatility space. The harsh reality is: retail investors hoping to buy spot at low prices for a bottom may find that this really could be the last bear market. Moving forward, spot trading is no longer the main battlefield for retail investors.

What is the current market rhythm like?

BTC is again testing the daily MA30 at around 89,500. If it can hold steady, the first target is to see if it can rebound to 100,000; if it can't hold, a second retest will be hard to avoid.

The key for ETH is whether it can shift from weakness to strength. Only a clear unilateral breakout counts; even if it breaks out, it’s just a shift from weak to slightly strong, not that exaggerated. If it can return to the 3600-3700 range, the bearish structure signals will become clearer, and the risk-reward ratio will be much more comfortable.

Recently, many people are calling for a bear market, and the argument is quite straightforward: no rate cuts, no balance sheet expansion, and many long-term positives haven't materialized. But on the other hand, bull and bear are just cyclical concepts; they don't have much significance for short-term trading.

Short-term traders focus on 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts, where countless opportunities can appear in a single day. For long-term investors, the real dilemma of bull or bear only matters when the cycle is 1 to 3 years long—waiting for the bear to be buried and the bull to realize gains—but the returns are also the most substantial. Different trading cycle choices naturally lead to very different conclusions. Honestly, obsessing over bull or bear in the short term is of little practical meaning.