#数字资产市场动态 $XRP four-hour chart is currently playing out a crucial battle between bulls and bears—breaking through 1.9 or retesting 1.8, no one can say for sure for now. But a recent data point is worth examining closely: a well-funded XRP institution is now experiencing an unrealized loss of over $220 million.

This group has a solid backing: their account holds 389 million XRP, initially invested nearly $950 million, and now these holdings are only worth $720 million. Such a level of loss is significant, so why haven't they started dumping aggressively? The reasons could be either waiting for a bull market rebound to cut losses or there are more complex strategic considerations behind the scenes—that needs to be understood thoroughly.

From a technical perspective, the MACD is transitioning from a death cross to a golden cross, indicating signs of a short-term rebound. The first resistance level is at 1.876, with 1.95 being a strong resistance zone, making a single breakout quite challenging. On the support side, don’t lose sight of the 1.825 level; if broken, the market can only hope to stabilize around 1.77. Currently, XRP is oscillating around 1.86, but trading volume is clearly shrinking, signaling both bulls and bears are watching closely—a sign that a trend reversal is becoming more evident.

From a trading standpoint, within the narrow range of 1.876-1.9, traders might consider reducing positions or taking light shorts, targeting 1.83-1.825. Conversely, if the price retests and stabilizes around 1.77-1.78, a small long position could be set up to catch a rebound back to 1.85. The key discipline is: avoid heavy leverage betting on a one-sided move. Use small positions to test the waters, and only increase gradually once the trend is confirmed.

The short-term outlook suggests an initial push higher to test 1.876, possibly reaching around 1.9, but breaking through 1.95 remains quite difficult. The large unrealized loss of that institution is actually sending an implicit signal—big institutions usually don’t cut losses easily, so selling pressure should have a ceiling. However, the market currently lacks fresh capital inflows, making it prone to a repeated pattern of sharp rises followed by pullbacks.