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These past few days, the market appears calm on the surface, but undercurrents are surging. The $28 billion options expire tonight, marking the most critical time point of the year.
BTC's biggest pain point is at 95,000, while Ethereum's is at 3,100. What lies behind these numbers? The real story begins after the expiration is complete.
Here's the interesting part—after more than 50% of the positions are settled, what do the big players do? They didn't withdraw; instead, they committed over 30% of their ammunition to out-of-the-money call options in March. What does this mean? It indicates that the market will rise.
Looking at past patterns, it becomes clear. The fourth quarter is usually challenging, retail investors' confidence collapses, and their morale diminishes. At this time, the big whales are quietly positioning themselves. They are drawing a future map in the options market at the lowest cost, just waiting for a rebound to wipe out all the fearful chips.
This is the mindset of top traders. They don't start positioning during prosperity; quite the opposite, they have already laid out the board when you're at your most desperate. Short-term volatility and fluctuations cannot change the long-term direction.
If you cut your losses now, you're actually actively giving away your chips. The cruelest truth in the crypto world is: at the same price, people with different perceptions will have completely different outcomes. The whales are deploying their funds, while most people are still driven by emotions.
The key is to learn how to read the true signals of the market from options data—that's the way to anticipate the footsteps of a bull market.