#降息预期 Seeing the Oracle earnings report this show, I was reminded of the times when AI concepts cut into the leek years ago. The Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points should have been a positive signal, but what happened? Bitcoin dropped 2.8%, and the Nasdaq futures also sank.

The problem isn't the rate cut itself, but that old, tired pattern—the debt-driven infrastructure boom, where promised revenues never keep up with actual cash flows. Oracle's weak new license sales and declining traditional software revenue—what does that indicate? It shows that the previous prosperity was just an illusion of overdrawing the future.

I've seen too many projects die this way. Overhyped early on, with financing, more financing, and refinancing, making the financials look stunning. But once the fundamentals are exposed, market sentiment reverses, and only those who are cautious manage to escape. The rate cut expectations have faded, FOMO has receded, and it's clear who's swimming naked.

This round of volatility is a signal, not the end. To survive long in this market, you need to learn to see through the falsehoods within the cycle—don't be blinded by macro positives like rate cuts; focus on whether companies can truly generate cash flow. Oracle's fall was hard enough; it's not just tech investors who should reflect.