A set of data during Christmas really illustrates the issue. The top three largest ETH holders are collectively at a nearly $80 million unrealized loss, yet a seasoned trader focused on short positions has made $83 million in profit over two months. It seems like bulls and bears are fiercely battling, but in reality, this reflects two completely different worlds.

The losses of those whales are often the cost of their established large-scale strategies. The scale of their game inherently includes time costs and volatility wear and tear. Conversely, those who profit do so through strict discipline—understanding their advantages, knowing when to act, and when to stay silent. They are not betting on being bullish or bearish; they are executing their own rules.

What about retail traders? Often, it’s a different picture. When longs get liquidated, they cut losses; when shorts surge, they chase in. Every sharp market fluctuation can shatter emotions, ultimately turning retail traders into the market’s "ATM." Frankly, the problem isn’t whether your stance is right or wrong, but that you don’t have your own team or discipline to follow.

The market is never as simple as "go long and win, go short and win." What it truly rewards is: clear self-awareness, strict risk control, and psychological resilience aligned with one’s strategy. When you see such extreme polarization, instead of trying to precisely predict the next wave, ask yourself—do you really understand what you’re doing?

Recognizing your ordinariness is more valuable than blindly pursuing precise predictions. To survive long-term in the crypto space, it’s all about depth of understanding and patience. Shortcuts and luck can never save you.