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MOVE indeed saw a surge yesterday—13% increase over 24 hours, with trading volume soaring nearly 400%. The spot trading volume on a major exchange reached six times the 20-day moving average, making the momentum look very strong on the surface. But a deeper look at on-chain data reveals a more interesting story.
Active addresses didn't show a significant explosion, market sentiment remains lukewarm, and other old coins are still "lying flat." This wave seems more like an emotional pulse rather than a fundamental revival. In financial terms, it's a classic "false rally" signal.
The long-term structure is even more concerning. MOVE's downtrend started back in January, and BTC's two bull markets haven't effectively lifted it. The deeper issue lies in circulating supply—only 28% is in circulation, and there's a monthly unlock quota of $5.89 million, which continues to exert pressure and weaken the buy-side momentum.
The technical perspective also hints at this. Looking at historical trends, there were rebounds over 50% on November 22 and December 14, but each time they quickly retreated. These repeated failed breakouts are actually telling us the true direction of the trend.
Although there was some short-term excitement, the overall structure remains bearish. Chasing the rally requires caution—this might be a case of a "sophisticated false rally" tactic.