Bitcoin's current position is quite interesting — it's neither at the peak of the mountain nor at the foot of the hill preparing for a surge. Instead, it's stuck halfway up the slope, taking a breather.

Looking at the halving cycle, it has now reached day 612, with the price around $88,000. According to historical patterns, this position is in the latter part of the cycle, still some distance from the all-time high. Several key indicators are signaling the same: cycle position at 0.42, growth ratio at 1.36, Z-score at -1.17, plus the 30-day moving average performing normally. Taken together, these data points more likely suggest that the market is consolidating its pricing, building energy for the next wave, and is far from the end of the cycle.

On-chain data also shows many positive signals. Over the past month, large transfers have decreased, and the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator has significantly dropped, even below previous highs. Even when excluding concentrated transfers, it continues to decline. What does this imply? The selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening, and supply pressure is easing. This usually indicates that prices are likely to stabilize and gradually form a medium-term bottom. Major cryptocurrencies like ETH, BNB, and XRP are also following this logic.

Looking at the whale inflow indicator, the 30-day reading has fallen to the lows of this cycle. The impulse for large holders to sell is waning, and a technical rebound could happen at any time. Liquidity tends to be low during this period toward the end of the year, with options expiring, and the market showing low volume and low volatility. But this is precisely when Bitcoin often chooses to accumulate energy. If in Q1 2026, institutional and corporate funds really start to enter the market, the trend could suddenly kick off.

Bear markets are often the sowing ground for bull markets. The ocean is redrawing itself — are you ready to surf or just watch the waves?