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The rate hike has finally arrived. Ueda Kazuo sent a strong signal around Christmas: wage growth and inflation are forming a positive feedback loop, bringing the 2% inflation target within reach. As long as the economy and price trends do not deviate from expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to advance its monetary policy adjustments, meaning the rate hike cycle is far from over.
In the long run, Ueda Kazuo's remarks are a warm-up for the yen's appreciation in 2026. Over the past decade, global investors have been playing the same game: borrowing cheap yen, then converting to buy U.S. stocks or BTC, earning the interest rate differential. Once the yen continues to strengthen, exchange rate fluctuations will start to suppress these high-risk assets. At that point, large arbitrage positions may be forced to close, leading to fierce selling pressure.
Looking ahead, the pressure for a large-scale return of Japanese funds to the domestic market is increasing. This reversal of capital flows is likely to deliver a heavy blow to the global financial markets in early 2026, and the impact will not be small.