Can Congress Pass a Sweeping Crypto Bill in 2026? Midterms, Shutdown Risks, and Negotiation Challenges Ahead

As 2025 draws to a close, optimism for major U.S. cryptocurrency legislation in 2026 remains tempered, with industry advocates estimating a 50–60% chance of a comprehensive bill becoming law.

Sources speaking to The Block highlighted key hurdles: midterm election pressures, recurring government shutdown threats, and stalled Senate momentum after hopes for a year-end Banking Committee hearing faded. While bipartisan efforts like the Clarity Act and GENIUS Act advanced in 2025, the path forward depends heavily on Senate leadership and negotiation dynamics in a divided Congress. For those tracking U.S. crypto regulation 2026, Senate Banking Committee actions, or stablecoin/market structure bills, the outlook balances opportunity with significant political risks.

Why 2026 Odds Are Estimated at 50–60%

Advocates cite several factors in their moderate assessment:

• Bipartisan Foundation: 2025 saw progress on stablecoins (GENIUS Act) and market structure (Clarity Act), building cross-aisle support.
• Pro-Crypto Shift: Post-2024 election sentiment and administration signals favor innovation.
• Counter Pressures: Midterm campaigning in 2026 could prioritize populist issues over complex fintech.
• Shutdown Distractions: Recurring funding deadlines disrupt legislative focus.
• Senate Bottleneck: No year-end hearing materialized, delaying momentum.

The 50–60% range reflects cautious optimism—higher than 2024 but far from guaranteed.

Key Risks: Midterms and Shutdown Negotiations

2026 is a midterm year, with all House seats and one-third of Senate up for election:

• Political Calculus: Members may avoid controversial votes close to primaries/campaigns.
• Polarization Potential: Crypto’s association with innovation vs. consumer protection could divide parties.
• Shutdown Threats: Continuing resolutions and debt ceiling debates often consume bandwidth.

These dynamics historically derail non-essential legislation, even with bipartisan backing.

What Happens Next: Senate Banking Committee Pivotal

Sources emphasized the Senate’s role as the make-or-break factor:

• Expected Actions: Early 2026 hearings to markup Clarity/GENIUS or consolidated bills.
• Leadership Influence: Chair and ranking member priorities will drive agenda.
• Amendment Risks: Contentious issues (privacy, self-custody, DeFi) could fracture support.
• House Coordination: Alignment needed for bicameral passage.

Without strong Senate push, comprehensive reform risks stalling into 2027.

Potential Outcomes for Crypto Legislation in 2026

• Best Case (60% Path): Narrow stablecoin/market structure bill passes with strong bipartisan votes.
• Base Case (50%): Partial wins (e.g., stablecoins only) or delayed to lame duck.
• Worst Case: Midterm gridlock or shutdowns kill momentum entirely.

Industry prepares for incremental progress over sweeping overhaul.

In summary, while crypto advocacy sources peg 2026 odds for sweeping legislation at 50–60%, midterm elections, shutdown risks, and Senate negotiations pose substantial challenges. With no year-end hearing and pivotal committee work ahead, the path remains uncertain but viable. Monitor Senate Banking Committee schedules and funding deadlines for signals on this critical year for U.S. digital asset policy.