2025-12-25 06:26:16

Recently, BTC's price movement has attracted quite a bit of attention. The current price is around 87,600 USD, and there are different opinions in the market. Let's take a look at the current market condition from two perspectives: technical analysis and on-chain data.

**Performance of Technical Indicators**

On the 1-hour timeframe, several key indicators are signaling. The MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, with the histogram changing from red to green, and the DIF line crossing above the DEA line—this usually indicates potential short-term rebound space. The RSI quickly rebounded from oversold levels at 28 to 42, suggesting selling pressure is weakening. The lower Bollinger Band is near 86,400 USD, and the current price has already bounced away from it. Narrowing bandwidth often precedes increased volatility. Historically, such conditions typically offer about a 3% upside potential, with the upper band acting as resistance around 89,100 USD.

**What On-Chain Data Tells Us**

More noteworthy is the change in on-chain holdings. Whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have increased their holdings by 2,000 BTC in the past hour, equivalent to an additional approximately 175 million USD in holdings. These large investors mainly completed their positions between 85,000 and 86,000 USD. According to exchange inflow data, 37% of BTC flowing into major exchanges comes from whale wallets, while retail and mid-sized traders are actually net sellers.

What does this contrast indicate? Investors can interpret it themselves.

BTC0.19%

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TokenSleuth

· 5h ago

Whales are eating up the coins, retail investors are fleeing, I've seen this script too many times. --- Breaking the 9.01K line is the real indicator; it's still too early to talk about a rebound. --- What’s the use of a 1-hour golden cross? The key is whether the 4-hour stays above 8.64. --- Oh my, whales are increasing their holdings again. Every time they do this, the price gets hammered down. I'm stunned. --- Is the 37% flow to exchanges meant to dump the market? Feels more complicated than that. --- Just want to ask, can it really reach 90,000 this time, or is it just another false alarm? --- On-chain data sounds convincing, but RSI42 is still at the bottom. Is a real rebound coming? --- Retail investors are net sellers... alright, I’m that retail investor being hammered down. --- Does narrowing Bollinger Bands always mean an expansion? The bears are so fierce. --- Whales ate 2000 coins; I bet they will dump it back.

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AlwaysAnon