EU trade with U.S. falls short as import spending declines

Trade agreement with the U.S. data indicates that the EU has not upgraded its spending on energy in spite of the tremendous commitments to buying based on flashy promises

ContentsSpending falls despite higher LNG volumesGoals do not coincide with actual reality in the marketThe infrastructure constraints and time in politicsThere is less evidence of increased commitments, but reduced costs, according to official numbers. The European Union offered to purchase 750 billion U.S. energy within three years

That guarantee was the focus of a wider trade agreement that was achieved in August. However, recent trade flows indicate an alternative result, which is influenced by prices and capacity restrictions but not by politics.

Spending falls despite higher LNG volumes

EU trade agreement with the U.S. shows a decreasing value in the importation since September. Between September and December, the EU had incurred a total of 29.6 billion on U.S oil and gas. This was a seven percent decrease compared to the same year in the preceding year.

The collapse followed an upsurge in the U.S. supply of liquefied natural gas into Europe. The prices of oil and gas decreased thus lowering the value of imports. Kpler data proved that it was not the demand that changed, but pricing.

Kpler senior director Gillian Boccara stated that purchases are a market-based economic. She observed that freight charges, freight margins were better than political utterances. Boccara also added that the trend does not favor the target of $750 billion.

Goals do not coincide with actual reality in the market

Trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. ambitions seem to be out of tune with the current levels of expenditure. The U.S. energy imports to the EU amount to approximately 73.7 billion up to 2025. This is insignificantly lower than the yearly level required to achieve the commitment in 2028.

Even the complete unwinding of Russian gas will not help close the gap, analysts say. According to estimates made by Argus Media, such a switch would elevate the yearly imports to approximately 29 billion. That is just 23 percent of the needed annual goal.

To achieve the full pledge, very high prices would have to be raised. Gas prices would be forced to surge to around 37 per mmbtu in the year 2028. Futures, currently, are trading close to 8.2 per mmbtu, and spot prices are close to 10.

These types of prices had not been seen since the 2022 energy crisis. Even in that case, analysts do not believe that the promise would be fulfilled.

The infrastructure constraints and time in politics

EU trade agreement with the U.S. implementation is physically restricted on both levels. In comments made by his EU import capacity would have to increase by more than 50 %, Argus analyst Martin Senior said. The U.S. capacity to export would have to be increased more than that.

The growth of that necessitates terminals, storage, and pipelines. These schemes do not get finished in a short time. Another supply side that is expected to rise in the global market is in the U.S., Qatar, and Canada. Such a trend may continue to hold prices down.

According to the European Commission, it had expended 200 billion on American energy products during the first half of 11 months of 2025. That number comprises LNG and oil, and a nuclear reactor project with Poland valued at 42 billion Euros. Nuclear fuel is less than one percent of the EU imports from the U.S.

The U.S. officials project that LNG imports would be 70 billion cubic meters in 2025. There are multiple long-term contracts that were signed this year. Nonetheless, analysts are suspicious of the extent of future new expenditure.

The current circumstances of the EU trade agreement with the U.S. commitments seem to be a farce. Practices on the market, infrastructure restrictions, and timing make a difference from pledges. In the absence of significant changes, the spending target can not be achieved.