2025-12-25 05:30:46

#数字资产市场动态 The Federal Reserve's Contradictory Moves: Pumping Liquidity or Draining It? Bitcoin struggles around $86,000, is there still a Christmas rally?

To be honest, the Fed's operational logic is ridiculously chaotic. On December 22 alone, they injected $6.8 billion, totaling $38 billion in liquidity over ten days, yet the crypto and stock markets show no signs of recovery.

Wall Street traders privately complain that this is more absurd than opening both long and short positions simultaneously—ending QT to pump liquidity, then using reverse repos to drain it. On December 18, overnight reverse repos soared directly to $10.361 billion. This money isn't flowing into the real economy; it's just filling a hole.

Where's the problem? The US debt black hole is right there. Three months of accumulating $700 billion in new debt has directly drained market liquidity. Interbank borrowing rates skyrocket. Small businesses want financing? It's as hard as climbing a mountain.

Interestingly, all this money has flowed into the financial markets—S&P 500 hitting new highs, gold rising over 60% this year. What about ordinary people? Their wages have fallen for three months straight.

$BTC's situation is even more awkward. It’s stuck around $86,000, swinging back and forth. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25, signaling extreme fear. On-chain data is even more heartbreaking: long-term holders are steadily selling off. The $300 billion of dormant Bitcoin this year has become active again, and the BTC spot ETF is also experiencing net outflows.

There's another heavy blow—the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Historical experience suggests this usually causes $BTC to retrace about 15%.

But don’t be too pessimistic. There are $270 billion in stablecoins (USDT accounts for $16 billion), and the Fed's reverse repo scale has fallen to a low of $3.047 billion. These are potential ammunition. But honestly, in an environment where Fed policies are contradictory, a Christmas rally with a big surge like previous years is unlikely. Traditional rules are no longer very effective.

Want to catch the bottom? Just watch two data points: the reserve requirement ratio and reverse repo balance. When these two shift, the market might turn around.

BTC0.9%

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StakeHouseDirector

· 5h ago

The Fed's recent moves are truly incredible; it's hard to tell whether they're flooding the market or draining it, and it's making me dizzy. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 86,000, and it seems there's little hope for a Christmas rally.

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FlashLoanPrince

· 12h ago

The Fed's moves are really a punch on the left and a kick on the right, I'm honestly confused... It's great to see them inject 38 billion easily, but why haven't the coins surged upward? Bitcoin's 86,000 feels like it's glued with adhesive, can't even shake it.

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GasGuru

· 12h ago

The Federal Reserve's approach is really just a case of one hand printing money while the other hand is bleeding, truly outrageous. 38 billion was released but nothing happened, the money all went into the financial markets, while ordinary wages are still falling. The Bitcoin at 86,000 is indeed an awkward position, long-term holders are all fleeing, I see this Christmas market rally is uncertain.

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TideReceder

· 12h ago

The Fed's operations are really a game of tug-of-war, releasing liquidity while simultaneously draining blood. Who can withstand this? The key is that the money isn't flowing into the real economy; it's just circulating in the financial markets. Ordinary retail investors see the S&P reaching new highs, while their wages are still falling. The feeling is hard to describe—really uncomfortable. BTC stuck at the 86,000 level is too awkward. Long-term holders are all losing money. Can't the signal be any clearer? But I don't think it's entirely hopeless yet. There are 270 billion in stablecoins sitting there. As long as reverse repos continue to decline, there's still a chance for a rebound. Christmas rally? Don't expect a repeat of last year; the rules have really changed.

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just_another_fish

· 12h ago

The Federal Reserve's series of measures really is digging its own grave. Despite releasing so much liquidity, the crypto market remains a dead fish, and the money has been sucked into debt holes. 86,000 is just a dead zone, and it can't break through.

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AirdropHunterXM

· 12h ago

The Fed's move is really brilliant, printing money and draining blood at the same time, almost like directly saying "I'm just messing with you." The 86,000 level is truly a bottleneck; holders are dumping, and long-term holders are also fleeing. This situation is indeed frustrating.

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BearMarketMonk

· 12h ago

The money the Federal Reserve has released has all gone into the financial markets, and ordinary people can only watch. Frankly, this is the fate of the cycle—some people get the meat, and others get the broth.

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