#通胀与经济增长 Seeing the Fed's recent moves, I have to be honest. The 25 basis point rate cut is in line with expectations, but the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year—that's the real game-changer. Going from a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year to possibly just 25 basis points next year—feel how quickly this shift is happening.

The key point is what Powell said: "Further rate cuts will only occur if there is a significant deterioration in the labor market." In other words, the easing cycle is nearing its end. Those in the market still hoping for continuous easing should wake up.

Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and although the labor market has cooled, it hasn't reached the point of "significant deterioration," which means the Fed is likely to hold steady. How many projects have seen false rallies supported by rate cut expectations, only to plunge once expectations reversed? Now, it’s like the market maker suddenly stopped, while retail investors are still chasing the rally.

My straightforward advice: **Don’t be fooled by short-term rebounds**. Bitcoin once broke above 94,000 and then fell back to 91,000. This move already signals something. The policy environment is transitioning from easing to tightening, so risk prevention must be maximized. Those still dreaming of a "big bull next year" should review the Fed’s dot plot more carefully—data speaks louder than any story.

Anyone who has gone through multiple cycles knows that the most dangerous moment is often when expectations shift from "it will definitely be good" to "it might not be." This is exactly that moment.