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Ethereum's recent market movements over the past two days are truly baffling. Gains are less than 100 points, and declines are similar, as if the pause button has been pressed. Last night, during the US stock market open, there was a sharp drop, followed by a quick rebound to 2960, but then it lost momentum. Now it’s back around 2945, fluctuating and grinding sideways. The core issue is clear—the market liquidity is severely lacking, trading volume has shrunk, and it's mostly retail investors self-consuming.
Currently, US markets remain closed, and tonight’s market is likely to be even more dull, with little hope for a meaningful breakout.
**Why is the news sentiment so "muted"?**
Major global markets are collectively entering holiday mode. US stocks closed early, will be fully closed on Thursday, and CME futures trading has also wound down early. The US federal government is taking a three-day holiday. This isn’t just a typical quiet market—it's a complete withdrawal of liquidity.
More importantly, the Federal Reserve’s stance is key. The market’s expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January has already reached 86.7%, with no expectation of rate cuts. While this somewhat stabilizes the market, it also shatters any illusions of a flood of liquidity.
**A "holiday market" in a double vacuum**
External conditions have fallen silent, macro policies are in wait-and-see mode, and Ethereum is trapped within a narrow range, lacking both upward momentum and downward pressure. This is the most frustrating kind of standoff during holidays—no technical signals, no news on the fundamentals, just waiting for time to pass.