#美联储降息预期 The Federal Reserve rate cut has been implemented, and the dovish signal is indeed clear. But how much follow-through energy does this wave of market movement have? After reviewing these two analysis reports, my judgment is: the pricing is already sufficient, and the reversal potential is limited.

First, let's discuss the current situation. BTC has retraced to 80,000 and has indeed stabilized above two moving averages, with the 200-day moving average turning positive slope, and short-term indicators showing a rebound in bullish momentum. These technical signals are real. But the problem is that the market's expectations for the Fed rate cut have already been largely digested; this is not new positive news but a "boots on the ground" event—an already known event.

The key obstacle is liquidity. As Christmas and settlement deadlines approach at the end of the year, this period has always been a "danger zone" for the crypto market. Options data shows that by the end of December, over 50% of positions are stacked, with BTC's biggest pain point firmly at the 100,000 mark, and ETH stuck at 3200. The implied volatility across the entire month is declining, indicating market expectations for volatility are waning. What does this mean? Traders are watching cautiously, large investors are pulling back.

A slow decline remains the mainstream consensus in the current options market, unless there is a sudden positive catalyst to reverse it. Therefore, my current follow strategy is adjusted as follows:

1. Temporarily reduce follow-through on aggressive traders, as they are more vulnerable to liquidity traps during this period.

2. Prioritize those with strong risk management skills who can position within ranges—more suitable for this "lack of primary upward momentum" market.

3. Maintain an observational stance; once genuine volume breakthroughs occur—not false breakouts—then add leverage to follow.

This market cycle does not lack opportunities; rather, the opportunity lies in how to precisely position oneself in low liquidity conditions, rather than blindly betting on a market restart. Experience has shown me that in uncertain environments, the most valuable thing is often the wisdom of "doing nothing."