#美联储降息预期 Seeing the lowest growth rate in labor costs in four years, coupled with Powell's statement that "inflation risks are tilted to the upside and there is no riskless policy path," I am actually becoming more cautious.

This combination of measures can easily confuse people—on the surface, data looks good, as if rate cuts are stable, and the crypto circle is starting to tell stories again. But think carefully: layoffs have risen to the highest since early 2023, and the resignation rate has hit a new low since 2020. What does this indicate? The labor market is cooling rapidly. Powell's remark that "the risk balance has shifted" should not be ignored; it hints that the Fed's attitude towards inflation is less optimistic.

Anyone who has experienced multiple cycles knows that the most tempting time to cut rates is before the actual cut—some projects and platforms start to hype up, telling rate-cut stories to attract capital. But once the policy actually shifts, it’s often the most ruthless time to trap people. The problem now is that even the rate cut hasn't been confirmed yet, and the macro environment is becoming more fragile.

My advice is, at this stage, don’t get carried away by expectations of rate cuts and chase highs. Most projects are rallying now based on betting on the Fed, but what if they bet wrong? Defense is more important than offense—reduce your risk exposure and wait until real certainty appears. Living longer is more valuable than making quick money.