If I had to pinpoint Bitcoin's current position, my judgment is: it's neither at the top nor at the bottom, but stuck in that "midway pause" zone.

Based on the halving cycle, 612 days have passed, and the price fluctuates around $88,000. Looking at this timing within previous years' cycles, it's in the later stage, but still far from the all-time high. The cycle position indicator gives a reading of 0.42, which in plain language means: the rapid upward phase has already ended, but the main bull run hasn't started yet.

What does a growth ratio of 1.36 indicate? The price is still within a healthy upward channel, with no sudden surge or loss of control. The Z-score of -1.17, a negative number, actually suggests the market is taking a breather—it's tired from the rise, but not reversing. The 30-day moving average remains stable, and the overall trend looks more like the market is "digesting" previous gains and accumulating strength for the next wave, far from announcing the end of the cycle.

On-chain data is even more interesting. That large transfer wave is long past—over a month ago. The CDD indicator, which measures coin destruction, is now declining and has fallen below previous highs. Crucially, after removing the noise from those concentrated transfers, the CDD continues to slide. What does this imply? It indicates that large holders haven't been moving their coins recently. Don't underestimate this small detail—when old coins are frequently moved, it usually signals someone preparing to sell; now, the transaction frequency is decreasing, which actually hints at diminishing selling pressure from long-term holders.

The CDD essentially records the time gap between a coin being "sleeping" and "spent." Historical trends show that when this indicator spikes sharply, it’s often followed by concentrated selling. Conversely, when the indicator declines, it signals stable holdings. So overall, although short-term fluctuations may still occur, the main selling pressure is indeed easing.