The recent macro landscape has indeed been quite刺激. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, seemingly a dovish signal on the surface, but as soon as the dot plot was released, the tone changed—only one rate cut window remaining before 2026. This shift is clearly more hawkish than market expectations. The result? Treasury yields surged, with the 4.2% level becoming the new normal.

At this point, the public discourse is at its peak. Trump immediately issued statements criticizing the Fed's decision-making logic, even mentioning institutional operating costs (that building renovation project), and implying that sustained high rates could impact economic performance. Powell has only five months left before stepping down, and he is currently caught between political pressure and policy independence, making his situation quite delicate.

From a market perspective, what is the most direct impact of this policy expectation deviation? The stickiness of Treasury yields has significantly increased. Strategists generally believe that if the Fed’s independence continues to be under pressure, inflation expectations and risk premiums will further push up long-term yields, with 4.5% not being an extreme scenario. This will trigger chain reactions across various asset allocations.

Returning to the crypto market, under this macro shift, the resilience of different assets to volatility has become apparent. High leverage exposures clearly suffer, but structural opportunities are also brewing. In the coming period, the key will be the interaction between policy pace and market pricing— the May 2026 Powell stepping down could become an important market turning point.

What are your thoughts? Under the current dual uncertainties of politics and economics, which assets or strategies do you think are better at resisting volatility shocks?