11.19 Market Scan: Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Gold, and US Stock Index Technical Overview

Market Environment Outlook

The current investment environment faces multiple uncertainties. Fund managers’ cash allocations are at a historic low of 3.7%, and US financial stocks are testing support levels, suggesting that market risk appetite may be adjusting. As concerns over AI valuations continue to ferment, stock market correction risks are gathering. Thursday’s US September non-farm payroll data will be a focal point, potentially setting the tone for the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision.

Bitcoin: Rebound Potential vs. Long-term Downtrend

Bitcoin is currently above $90,000, having declined nearly 30% since early October. Technical indicators show a series of lower lows and lower highs, clearly indicating a downward trend framework. Although a technical rebound correction is needed after a sharp short-term decline, investors should be cautious about the nature of this rebound.

Short-term rebound expectation: If Bitcoin stabilizes above $92,000, a rebound could challenge $96,000 and even $100,000. However, such a rebound should be viewed as a technical correction within a downtrend, not a trend reversal signal.

Medium-term risk: If it fails to effectively hold above $100,000, there remains a risk of retesting $86,500 or even $75,000.

Support levels: 92,000, 90,000, 85,000
Resistance levels: 100,000, 106,000, 108,500

WTI Crude Oil: Rising Momentum Accumulating, Watch for Short-term Overheating

WTI crude oil rose 1.42% on Tuesday, reaching a high of $60.85, with three days of gains over the past four trading days. The key observation point is that the AO indicator shows rising momentum is accumulating, which means if oil prices stabilize around the $60 mark, there is a risk of further upward testing.

Upper target: Focus on resistance near $65.5. If broken, the upward space will further open.

Lower support: $58 becomes a critical support. Falling below this level will change the short-term bullish outlook.

Support levels: 60.0, 58.3, 56.0
Resistance levels: 62.0, 65.0, 70.0

Gold: $4000 Support Confirmed, Rebound Expected to Extend

Gold rose 0.4% on Wednesday, reaching a high of $4,098, close to $4,100. Although still oscillating within the $3,890-$4,225 range, the establishment of $4,000 support indicates that a short-term rebound trend may be forming.

Rebound target: If it successfully breaks through $4,100, further challenges can be made towards $4,130 to $4,220. Investors can watch around the November 27 timeframe as an observation window.

Range perspective: After the rebound completes, testing the $4,000 support repeatedly is expected, so the price movement should be viewed as range-bound.

Support levels: 4,000, 3,930, 3,760
Resistance levels: 4,100, 4,220, 4,320

S&P 500 Index: Adjustment Not Over, Rebound Cautious

The S&P 500 fell 0.83% on Tuesday, hitting a new low of 6,574 in over a month. It is important to note that the index is in a correction phase of the upward trend initiated in early April, and this correction may not be over yet. Investors should avoid rushing into short-term rebounds and remain cautious.

Key level: 6,760 is a short-term observation point. If the index recovers and stabilizes above this level, the correction may have bottomed.

Conditions for trend reversal: A recovery and stabilization above 6,820 are needed to confirm the upward trend. If not achieved, correction pressure could extend to 6,550 or even 6,430.

Support levels: 6,550, 6,430, 6,330
Resistance levels: 6,760, 6,820, 6,920

Overall Reminder

The four major assets show different technical situations, but all are at critical levels of tug-of-war. Gold and oil demonstrate upward momentum, Bitcoin faces a mix of rebound and downtrend risks, and US stocks are still in correction. Investors should focus not only on short-term trading opportunities but also on the medium-term trend framework and risk management.