Quick reality check on holiday spending: Visa's numbers for the first seven weeks show sales climbing 4.2%—sounds solid until you stack it against last year's pace. Growth is decelerating, which tells us something about where consumer momentum sits heading into Q1.

This matters more than it seems. When payment networks see slower holiday velocity, it reflects tighter household finances and shifting behavior patterns. For crypto traders watching macro cycles, retail spending data is a leading indicator—when discretionary purchases cool, risk appetite typically follows. The lag signals either consumer caution or market saturation, both worth monitoring as we think about demand cycles and market liquidity ahead.

The broader context: holiday spending directly correlates with retail confidence and disposable income. A 4.2% gain with deceleration suggests growth is becoming harder to achieve, which could ripple through equities, commodities, and yes, the broader digital asset space where retail participation remains significant.