Ulta Beauty Stock Surges Past Market: Here's What Investors Need to Monitor

Beauty retailer Ulta Beauty (ULTA) closed at $521.02 in recent trading, marking a +1.25% daily uptick—outperforming the broader market where the S&P 500 gained just 0.91%. The Nasdaq and Dow climbed 0.67% and 1.43% respectively, showing mixed momentum across sectors. However, a month-long perspective reveals weakness: ULTA has shed 1.57% over the past 30 days, while the Retail-Wholesale sector declined by 3.09% and the S&P 500 fell 1.24%.

Earnings Report Looms: Consensus Expectations Take Shape

A critical catalyst approaches on December 4, 2025, when Ulta Beauty unveils its earnings report. Wall Street’s consensus paints a nuanced picture. For the upcoming quarter, analysts project EPS of $4.48—a 12.84% decrease from the year-ago period. On the revenue side, expectations stand at $2.71 billion, representing a 7.12% year-over-year increase.

Zooming out to the full year, the consensus estimates suggest annual EPS of $24.38 and revenue reaching $12.06 billion. This translates to a -3.79% earnings contraction and a +6.76% revenue expansion versus the prior year. The divergence between earnings pressure and top-line growth hints at potential margin compression or elevated operating costs.

Analyst Sentiment Shifts: What Recent Revisions Tell Us

Over the past month, Zacks Consensus EPS estimates have risen by 0.19%, a modest but meaningful signal of incremental optimism. This upward revision suggests analysts are becoming slightly more constructive on near-term profitability. Ulta Beauty currently holds a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), indicating a balanced but positive outlook from the broader analyst community.

Valuation Under Microscope: Premium Pricing in a Challenged Sector

Trading at a Forward P/E of 21.11, ULTA commands a premium relative to its industry peer average of 18.84. The PEG ratio stands at 3.41, which factors in expected earnings growth trajectories alongside traditional valuation multiples. For comparison, the Retail - Miscellaneous sector maintains an average PEG ratio of 2.73, suggesting ULTA’s growth expectations are priced above sector norms.

The broader Retail - Miscellaneous industry carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 159, placing it in the bottom 36% of all 250+ industries tracked. This positioning reflects structural headwinds in the retail-wholesale sector. Historical data shows that top-performing industries outpace bottom-tier ones by a 2-to-1 margin, raising questions about the tailwinds available to ULTA within its current sector classification.

The Bottom Line

Ulta Beauty’s recent outperformance masks underlying earnings pressure and elevated valuation multiples. While revenue growth remains solid and analyst sentiment shows marginal improvement, the combination of declining earnings, premium pricing, and sector weakness warrants careful monitoring heading into the December earnings release.