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🇯🇵 Japan → Why it matters for BTC
Japan impacts global liquidity more than it looks because of:
JPY carry trade
Global bond & FX liquidity
Risk asset correlation
1️⃣ Japan Liquidity Shock (Left chart)
Tight liquidity / funding stress
Yen strengthens → carry trades unwind
Risk assets (BTC, stocks) sell off fast
Result: Sharp BTC dump (75k → 50k)
2️⃣ BoJ Policy Shift (Right chart – Projection)
Rate normalization / tightening signal
Market reprices risk before confirmation
BTC loses high-timeframe support
Projection aligns with 90k → 50–60k zone
---
📉 Technical + Macro Confluence
HTF rejection near resistance
Lower high + breakdown
Macro liquidity tightening
Result = forced deleveraging
This is not random selling — it’s macro-driven liquidity exit.
---
Key Levels to Watch
Failure zone: Previous range high (distribution top)
Acceleration: Loss of mid-range support
Major demand: 58k–50k (strong historical liquidity)