Powell still has about 6 months before the resignation window, and this matter is no longer about "whether there will be a change," but rather "who will replace him and when the market will start pricing in it."

Treasury Secretary Yellen has already explicitly stated that she is unwilling to take this position, essentially opting out. The market's current default best guess is Haskett.
Why him?
First, he has an extremely clear stance. Haskett openly supports cryptocurrencies, which is very crucial in the current political environment.
Second, he has repeatedly emphasized that "current economic data support further rate cuts," not ambiguities, but a clear stance.
Third, his economic philosophy is highly aligned with Trump’s, in other words, they are cut from the same cloth.
So the logic is simple: once Haskett is confirmed by the market as the successor, the Fed’s "dovish hawk-neutral" pricing will be quickly overturned, replaced by "preemptive easing expectations." That’s why I’ve always said that in the second half of next year, the probability of continued rate cuts is not just slightly higher, but structurally certain.
But there is a point that many people tend to misunderstand here: rate cuts are not unlimited liquidity injections. The real impactful liquidity injections will basically be completed around May next year. Future rate cuts will be more about "policy confirmation" and "sentiment backing," rather than a new round of massive liquidity. In other words, the first half of the year is driven by liquidity expectations and pricing, while the second half is driven by political cycles + policy direction for valuation.