ETH's rapid surge after a sharp decline hides the main force's counterattack strategy!

Have you noticed that today’s ETH rally, while astonishing, also feels quite strange? From 2780 all the way up to over 3040, with an 8%+ increase in 24 hours, it looks unstoppable, but the details in the market tell a different story. I’ve been watching minute-level data for a long time, and the more I look, the more I feel there are warning signals hidden within this surge.

Volume-Price Divergence is the Key to Identifying Main Force Traps

A truly strong rally should be characterized by rising volume and price together. When the price surges, trading volume should also increase, indicating genuine buying pressure. But today, ETH’s performance is the opposite—while the price pushes toward 3120, the 15-minute volume actually shrank by 10%-18%; after breaking through the 3040 candle, the 1-hour volume was cut in half!

This phenomenon is called volume-price divergence, simply put: the price is going up, but no one is really placing buy orders; it’s just being pushed up by a few chips. This is no different from a fake rally. Looking back at ETH’s past movements over the years, whenever similar structures appeared, the trend would reverse. The last time this happened, the market was pushed down by 15%, and many who chased the high are still trapped.

Two Key Levels Decide True or False Breakouts

After understanding the danger of volume-price divergence, the next focus should be on those decisive technical levels. There are two data points you must remember:

The first is 3120. I call it the “Bull Trap.” This level is a sweet spot created by the main force to attract retail traders to chase the rally. If ETH cannot hold above 3120, then all upward moves are just bluffing, and it will quickly fall back. For retail traders, entering at this level often means getting trapped.

The second is 3170. This is a historically dense trading zone, where last year a large amount of chips were trapped between 3170-3200. Now that the price has moved up here, those previously trapped will be eager to sell, and institutions reducing positions at high levels will also unload here. From a technical perspective, this is a heavy selling pressure zone. If the main force really wanted to push higher, they would have broken through with volume already; instead, they are hesitating here, indicating this could be a trap point.

On-Chain Chips Cost Reveal the Main Force’s True Intentions

More worth noting is the distribution of on-chain chips. According to data, the large holders (whales) have their cost basis concentrated in the 3050-3100 zone, with solid holdings. In other words, the main force cannot just watch retail traders profit above their cost basis.

The typical tactic of the main force is this: push the price to levels where retail traders think it will continue rising (like 3120, 3170), creating FOMO and attracting retail to buy in at the top, then suddenly reverse, smashing the price back to their cost zone. After retail traders panic and cut losses, they slowly push the price higher again. This is the hidden logic behind rapid surges followed by sharp drops.

The Three Most Likely Trends in the Next 48 Hours

Based on the current technical structure, I judge that ETH is most likely to follow one of these three scenarios, ranked by probability:

1. Volume-Reduced Fake Surge and Reversal (70%): First, a fake rally to lure retail traders to chase to 3120 or even 3170, then a sharp drop back, washing out stops around 3080, and further testing support at 3050. This is the most common tactic used by the main force and the easiest way to trap retail traders.

2. Breakout with Volume Needed (20%): If there is a genuine surge past 3170, then a breakout above 3200+ could happen. But the key is “volume”—a breakout without sufficient trading volume is just a gimmick.

3. Rapid Drop to 2900 (10%): Although the least likely, it’s still something to watch out for. Institutions’ positions are mostly above 2900, and they are also afraid of falling. If the price truly breaks below this level, they will panic even more.

The Most Wise Approach Right Now

Currently, ETH is trading around $2.94K, up +1.23%. Market sentiment has already reached a FOMO high, which is precisely the most dangerous moment. I’ve seen too many scenarios like this: the more excited retail traders are, the calmer the main force becomes. The fastest chase to the top often results in the worst trapping.

My advice is to stay calm and observe. Don’t be fooled by false signals on the surface. If you already hold positions, consider reducing rather than adding. If you haven’t entered yet, wait until volume clearly picks up and the trading volume genuinely supports a breakout before entering. Remember, in this market, missing a wave of gains is not scary; what’s scary is chasing at the top and being trapped for two years.