Recently, the Federal Reserve's actions have indeed reshaped market perceptions. The December FOMC meeting released a lot of information, worth analyzing carefully for its impact on the crypto market.

On the surface, the Fed announcing a 25 basis point rate cut should be seen as a positive signal. However, the voting results are quite interesting—out of 12 voting members, 3 opposed the cut, reaching a level not seen since 2019. Nearly half of the policymakers openly expressed that the cut was unnecessary, indicating a rare level of disagreement. More painfully, the dot plot forecast suggests only one rate cut in 2026, which sharply contradicts the market’s previous expectations of continued easing.

But that’s not the most shocking part. The Fed also simultaneously launched a reserve management bond-buying program, directly purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds in the first round, and this will be continuous. This is the real big move—the end of the two-year QT cycle has been officially announced, and a new round of balance sheet expansion has begun.

How should we interpret these actions? The Fed’s official stance is that this is "preemptive rate cuts," with the core goal of stabilizing employment. They are genuinely afraid of a sharp collapse in the labor market. From the market perspective, it’s like a dual stance—one hand showing hawkishness, while quietly opening the floodgates for liquidity. Rates are cut, but not completely; tightening measures are taken, then quickly eased. This contradictory policy combination will likely continue to influence the liquidity environment for crypto assets, and we’ll have to keep observing.