Weekly Outlook

1. Overall weak this week: the price pierced down to 876 and closed below 883 EQ, but remains near the consolidation zone EG. Currently, the main focus is on the consolidation position; if the price spends most of the time below 883, the bias is bearish. Watch for support at 8578. If the price can hold above 883 and consolidate, then look for a possible breakout above 906, followed by 925, and then a test of 94-95.
2. This week is a busy news week:

- 12.16 US November Non-Farm Payrolls
- 12.17 Fed officials' speeches
- 12.18 US November CPI
- 12.19 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting

Historical data shows that since 2024, every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC has experienced a drop of over 20% (March - 23%, July - 26%, January 2025 - 31%). If interest rate hikes occur next week, downward risks should still be watched closely, with potential drops around 78.

Hourly Chart

1. After the 876 pierce, a rebound occurred, but the H4 bearish OB resistance is clear. If rejection occurs, prioritize short positions; this is the highest probability zone for shorting. Keep tight small stops. If the price breaks above 906, expect continued consolidation and reversal into an upper gap FVG, possibly reaching 925-93.
2. The current key level is 895: only a break above this can test 9000; if rejected again, the market remains weak.

Overall: The market is consolidating weakly, with a cautious approach to news weeks. Focus primarily on the performance of 883 and 895 before deciding the next direction.