Done! The bubble has completely burst!

After nearly 17 months and a 15-fold increase in stock price during a super bull market, Pop Mart has retraced about 44% in just 4 months, evaporating over HKD 200 billion in market value.

From trendy collectibles to financial products, and back to plastic toys.

The bubble cycle of Pop Mart fully validates Soros's "Reflexivity Theory," which states that stock prices and popularity are mutually causal.

- Positive cycle: Stock price rises -> Media coverage -> IP appears more valuable -> More people buy -> Performance improves -> Stock price continues to rise

- Negative cycle: Stock price falls -> Market questions if IP is outdated -> Flippers dump shares -> Premium disappears -> Ordinary players think it's not worth it and stop buying -> Performance suffers -> Stock price continues to fall

Once the trend reverses, the forces that once pushed prices up become the accelerators of decline.

Seeing this, does it feel familiar? This spiral pattern of stepping on the right foot with the left also exists in the crypto world. Yes, I mean "MicroStrategy."

The market assumes Michael Saylor has unlimited refinancing ability, essentially unlimited rights to print shares to buy coins, which gives MSTR a high holding premium.

If BTC continues to hover at high levels or if the pace of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion is disrupted, and macro liquidity tightens slightly:

- MSTR's high premium will first disappear, killing valuation

- Subsequently, BTC's asset value will decline, killing net asset value, which is a textbook example of "Davis Double Kill."

Of course, I am not predicting, just presenting a possibility. If we must learn something from Pop Mart, I hope it is to avoid repeating the same mistakes.