#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: ETH’s trend has followed BTC in breaking below 3300, but on-chain data shows that whales are actively accumulating during the pullback, indicating that large funds recognize the current price levels as valuable. Next, observe whether the price can be effectively supported at 3000-2900.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics: Whale behavior (key difference): Multiple whale addresses have significantly increased holdings during the price correction. The “insider whale” has added over 19,000 ETH, and major holder BitMine has also increased holdings by about 33,500 ETH, injecting strong buyer confidence into the market. Exchange reserves: The proportion of Ethereum held on exchanges has dropped to about 8.7%, a historic low, with continuous withdrawals and staking greatly reducing potential sell pressure in circulation.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: If the price rebounds to around 3400 and encounters obvious resistance, especially when BTC is extremely weak, consider a light short position. Support levels are at 3000-2900. If the price stabilizes in this range and forms bullish candlestick patterns, it is an ideal low-buy entry point, with stop-loss set at a one-hour candle break below the support.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Market Dragging Risk: If BTC breaks down sharply, causing systemic risk, ETH’s independent support may temporarily fail. Whale Behavior Lag Risk: On-chain accumulation data reflect past actions and cannot predict next moves; caution is needed as there is a possibility of whales switching to distribution. Volatility Amplification Risk: After macro events, market sentiment becomes sensitive, and ETH’s high volatility may lead to short-term price overshoot.