I've been keeping a close eye on US economic data lately and noticed a pretty interesting signal.

The Commerce Department just released the core PCE price index year-over-year at 2.8%, which is a bit lower than market expectations, and the month-over-month figure is just 0.2%, showing little volatility. Overall PCE inflation is also at a 2.8% annual rate. This data was delayed for a while because of the government shutdown, but the result has actually reassured the market.

Why is that? Because PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed watches most closely. The current data shows inflationary pressure is continuing to ease, which basically tells the market that a December rate cut is almost a sure thing. There were concerns before that the delayed data might bring some surprises, but now the direction is clear and the policy path is well defined.

If the rate cut really happens in December, where will all that cheap global capital flow? It will definitely go to high-risk, high-reward places. Crypto assets, which are extremely sensitive to liquidity, could see both institutional and retail funds pouring in at that point.

Bitcoin has been testing previous highs, and altcoins are getting ready to move. If the rate cut actually happens, this kind of "macro fuel" will make the market narrative even more convincing. With inflation falling and rates set to go down, Bitcoin's "hedge against inflation + liquidity arbitrage" thesis will both be in play.

The market is already starting to price in this expectation. Once the rate cut cycle starts, the revaluation logic for crypto assets could play out faster than expected. In the coming weeks, it's worth keeping a close eye on the Fed's moves and shifts in market sentiment.