2025-12-09 14:29:47

In the next two weeks, there are two major meetings worth keeping a close eye on.

First, the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting will be held from December 9 to 10, and the market is widely betting on a 25 basis point rate cut. There are two sides to this: if things go according to script and they cut by 25bp, then this round of expectations is basically priced in, and market sentiment may cool off; but if they surprise with a 50bp cut? That would be a solid bullish catalyst, and risk appetite in the market could really take off.

On the other side is the Bank of Japan, meeting from December 18 to 19. This time is a bit different—rumors are circulating that they might discuss a rate hike. This needs special attention. If the BOJ really shifts to tightening, it would mark the end of their long-standing loose policy, and global financial markets are very likely to get shaken up. After all, everyone is used to the low-yield yen environment, and a sudden change could easily trigger a chain reaction.

To put it plainly, volatility could spike around these two time points. If you’re making decisions, it’s best to have your strategy figured out before the meetings—set up your hedges in advance and don’t wait until the dust settles to scramble.

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gas_fee_therapist

· 5h ago

25bp? That's just the prelude to cutting leeks; whether we can cut 50bp is the real test. As soon as the Bank of Japan shifts to a rate hike, I know something's going to happen; long-term arbitrageurs need to run. These past two weeks have been a gambler's moment; early positioning and hedging are what wise people should do. The market expectations for the Federal Reserve have been mostly digested; the next trigger point depends on the Bank of Japan. The shoe hasn't dropped yet, but you can already feel the wave of volatility about to take off. Honestly, waiting until risk appetite truly picks up might be too late to get on board.

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HashRateHustler

· 5h ago

25bp basically means the stock market reacts, and Japan is the real black swan. Once tightening really happens, the whole world will have to move accordingly.

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 12-09 14:59

I’m all too familiar with that 25bp routine—boring, just waiting for the 50bp surprise. The real bomb is at the Bank of Japan; those used to arbitrage are going to cry. It’s best not to go naked in the next two weeks, I don’t dare to gamble. You need to set up your hedges in advance this time, or you’ll take a heavy loss. The Fed is teasing us again, so annoying. Japan tightening? The whole world will be shaking along. I’m betting on 50bp, let’s see what happens. Hedge, hedge—I’m starting my research right now. For those two meetings in December, hold your breath, brothers.

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WagmiOrRekt

· 12-09 14:58

25bp? That's just a sedative. The real X factor is the Bank of Japan—if they pivot to tightening, the whole world will have to tremble.

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EternalMiner

· 12-09 14:55

To be honest, I'm actually not too worried about the Fed; it's just a matter of 25 or 50, and the market has already priced that in. The real bomb is at the Bank of Japan. If the rate hike actually happens, global liquidity will change instantly.

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NFTHoarder

· 12-09 14:53

A 25bp cut is totally according to script, really boring. Still hoping the Fed will surprise with a full 50bp move. The Bank of Japan is the real disruptor this time—suddenly hiking rates? The whole world could blow up. It's wild within these two weeks, better get those hedges in place first. Only a 50bp cut can save the market, 25bp is just toothpaste squeezing. If the BOJ shifts, my yen exposure will take a big hit. The Fed has to get serious this time, or it's just too boring. Feels like December is one big drama after another, I'm a bit nervous about my positions. Will these two meetings directly rewrite the year-end market? Gotta keep my eyes wide open. The night before the shoe drops, the anxiety is maxed out. The rate cut expectations have been played out already, everyone knows but no one says it.

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ProofOfNothing

· 12-09 14:37

Wait, is it a 25 or 50 basis point cut? That’s a huge difference. If it really happens, the market will explode. BOJ rate hike?? Now that would be deadly, global arbitrage trades would blow up half the world. Gotta stay on alert these two weeks, hedging in advance is the real deal, definitely don’t go all in. A 50bp move would send things flying, but that's unlikely. Most likely it’s 25, then disappointment and selling pressure. Yen appreciation is coming, by then the bottom fishers will be lined up all the way to Tokyo Bay.

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MondayYoloFridayCry

· 12-09 14:32

We've seen that 25bp trick so many times. The real show is with the Bank of Japan—will they shift to raising rates? Global liquidity could be in for a major change.

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