Pay attention tonight! The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced at 3 a.m., but this rate cut might not be as simple as you think.

The market isn’t really debating whether there will be a cut (an 87% probability is basically locked in). What’s really making people nervous is the possibility of a “hawkish rate cut”—on the surface you get the sweetness of a cut, but then they hint “don’t expect more cuts coming.” If that happens, the market could slam on the brakes instantly.

A few warning signals have already appeared:

US stocks and Treasuries weakened in advance last night, with big money clearly watching from the sidelines or even pulling out. A sudden 7.6-magnitude earthquake hit Japan, disrupting the previously expected yen rate hike path and adding another layer of uncertainty to global liquidity. There are also reports that at least four Fed officials are ready to vote against the cut, showing significant internal disagreement.

The key is how Powell will signal:

If he emphasizes that inflationary pressure remains, market sentiment will cool off immediately. If the dot plot signals fewer rate cuts next year, then a short-term correction is almost inevitable. But if he takes a more dovish tone like “continue to watch the data,” that could instantly ignite a rally.

For us crypto players, we need to be prepared for both scenarios:

If it’s dovish, BTC and ETH are likely to retest previous highs, and major coins have a high probability of following the rally. If it’s hawkish, be wary of a short-term pullback, but looking at the bigger picture, any drop could actually be a buying opportunity. Remember this: the door to a rate-cut cycle has already been opened, and this direction isn’t changing anytime soon.

Tonight definitely won’t be calm. Manage your positions and don’t go all-in. All the pressure is on Powell now—let’s see what he says.

What do you think? Will we see a direct pump tonight, a dip then a surge, or continued volatility? Share your thoughts in the comments, and come back after 3 a.m. to see what happened.