87% Probability of a Rate Cut—Will the Market Really Follow the Script?

Right now, everyone’s talking about the Fed cutting rates, and CME data shows the probability is as high as 87.3%. But it’s not that simple—when everyone is rushing in the same direction, that’s often when it’s time to hit the brakes.

Institutions have been positioning for a while. They’re playing the “rate cut expectation” card and making moves in the market. What about retail investors? Many are still glued to real-time prices—getting excited when Bitcoin goes up and panicking when it drops. The problem is, by the time you react, the big players have already made their moves.

The real turning point will be Powell’s press conference. If his tone is dovish, it might trigger a short-term rally; but don’t forget the old rule: “buy the rumor, sell the news”—when the news actually lands, that’s often when the top is in.

What’s even more interesting is the 12.7% probability of “no rate cut.” Everyone’s betting on a cut, but what if the Fed suddenly takes a hawkish stance? The market will definitely adjust, but that kind of adjustment could actually be a buying opportunity. When the majority is bullish, risk is often lurking where you can’t see it.

The crypto market is never short on hype—it’s short on calm. Don’t let probability numbers lead you by the nose, and don’t let emotions make decisions for you. The market rewards those who understand the “expectation gap,” not the ones who just follow the crowd.

How are you planning to respond to this rate cut narrative?