#美联储重启降息步伐 Let's take a look at the US economic data for November—some are happy, some are not.

Manufacturing isn't looking great. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is only 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49 and down from last month's 48.7. More importantly, this is the ninth consecutive month it's been below the 50 boom-bust line. The downturn in manufacturing really seems hard to reverse.

But the services sector tells a completely different story. In November, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6, not only beating the expected 52.1 but also rising from last month's 52.4. It has stayed above the boom-bust line for six straight months, with improvements in the last two months. Basically, the US economy is now being propped up by the services sector.

Employment data is more mixed. The ADP employment data was a shocker—a decrease of 32,000! The market had expected an increase of 10,000, but instead, it reversed sharply from last month's 47,000 gain. This shows that some companies are indeed cutting back on hiring, and the labor market isn't as hot as before.

However, initial jobless claims show another side: for the week ending November 29, there were only 191,000 claims, lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous 218,000. So, there aren't that many people losing their jobs; the job market is still resilient, just not as strong as it used to be.

On interest rates, market expectations for a rate cut are now quite high. According to CME data (as of December 5), the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is as high as 87%, with only a 13% chance of staying unchanged. By January next year, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is already at 27%.

Key upcoming dates: next week is the December FOMC meeting, and on Friday, the core PCE price index will be released. This is the inflation data the Fed watches most closely and will largely determine their next steps. Whether the rate-cut cycle really starts—we'll soon have the answer.

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