#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH $ZEC $LUNC

The December Fed meeting is becoming the focus of global traders.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its policy meeting on December 9-10, and market expectations for another 25 basis point rate cut have drowned out almost all skepticism. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut has climbed to 87%, with the federal funds rate likely to fall into the 3.75%-4% range. Even Morgan Stanley, which had previously been cautious, has now changed its stance and joined the camp predicting a rate cut.

Internal divisions within the Fed are tearing at the consensus. Governor Stephen Milan is practically calling out: the current high interest rates are strangling jobs and policy must be loosened more aggressively. New York Fed President Williams’ remarks are even more intriguing—he mentioned that there is "room for short-term adjustments" in policy and that it needs to move toward a neutral stance, so as not to let the labor market become collateral damage. That phrase "short-term" has been interpreted by many analysts as a clear hint that a rate cut is a done deal.

San Francisco Fed President Daly is even more explicit. She bluntly stated that action must be taken in December, because if the labor market collapses, a wave of layoffs will be unstoppable like a flood. And inflation? The Fed still has tools in its toolbox.

However, the hawks have not surrendered. At least four voting officials remain cautious about consecutive rate cuts, worried that inflation is quietly seeping from goods into services, with its roots spreading. Boston Fed President Collins didn’t oppose the October rate cut, but now appears hesitant—she believes that a moderately restrictive rate may need to be maintained for a while longer.

The doves are charging, the hawks are defending. This internal struggle over the direction of interest rates will yield an answer in a few days. For the crypto market, every move by the Fed could rewrite the liquidity narrative.