2025-12-04 19:37:51

I’m holding 200,000 Backpack points and have recently been thinking about how to insure this asset. I saw some people using prediction markets for hedging, so I looked into it, and I have to say, DeFi really excels at this kind of combo strategy.

Right now, the OTC price for Backpack is hovering between 0.3 and 0.4 USDT, which puts the fully diluted valuation at around $700 million. The odds and price trends on prediction markets can naturally serve as a hedging tool. Simply put, you can use a portion of your funds to take a position in the prediction market—if the points’ price crashes, the returns from the prediction market can help offset some of the losses.

The essence of this approach lies in the composability of financial instruments—spot holdings plus derivative hedging—to keep risk exposure within an acceptable range. It’s another lesson in the practical utility of DeFi.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ConfusedWhale

· 12-04 19:56

This 200,000 points hedging strategy seems a bit overthought to me. The liquidity in prediction markets is so poor that if you really try to hedge, you’ll probably lose even faster. Instead of piling up points in spot, it’s better to just swap them for USDT and hold—that’s real insurance. DeFi combo strategies sound fancy, but in reality, you’re just betting on the right direction. There’s no fundamental difference. Points fluctuating between 0.3 and 0.4 USDT—the outlook seems shaky. Don’t have too much faith that these derivatives will save you. Calling it a hedge sounds nice, but honestly, it’s just another chance to pay extra fees. You’re basically handing money to the protocol.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunterWang

· 12-04 19:42

The 200,000 points hedging method does work, but does the prediction market have enough liquidity? DeFi combo strategies are fun to play, but if one step goes wrong, the whole plan could fail. The point price is between 0.3 and 0.4; I feel there's still room for it to go lower. The logic makes sense; the key is how to set the hedge ratio to be secure. If you ask me, it's better to just sell half and lock in some profit—no need to make it so complicated. Hedging in the prediction market? Feels like the odds carry a lot of risk too, but might as well give it a try.

View OriginalReply0

VitalikFanAccount

· 12-04 19:41

200,000 backpacks just sitting there like this is indeed a bit of a waste. I’ve considered hedging too. I have to try this prediction market hedging strategy, but whether the odds are reliable is another question. Fluctuating between 0.3 and 0.4, to be honest, a 700M valuation feels a bit inflated. The DeFi combo play is quite novel, but I’m just worried the prediction market side might collapse too. There have been plenty of cases where both spot and derivatives got wiped out. It would be a miracle if it really holds up this time.

View OriginalReply0

wrekt_but_learning

· 12-04 19:41

200,000 points hedging, this move is indeed slick. But is there enough liquidity on the prediction market side? Can it really handle the hedge?

View OriginalReply0

Trending TopicsView More
#JoinGrowthPointsDrawToWiniPhone17
269.72K Popularity
#DecemberMarketOutlook
68.46K Popularity
#PostonSquaretoEarn$50
8.98K Popularity
#LINKETFToLaunch
10.03K Popularity
#SharingMy100xToken
10.74K Popularity

Hot Gate FunView More

1
HCGHCG
MC:$3.51KHolders:2
0.09%
2
8888888open the door
MC:$3.47KHolders:1
0.00%
3
GG3GG3
MC:$3.48KHolders:1
0.00%
4
GAMEDGAMED
MC:$3.51KHolders:1
0.00%
5
jlKoi
MC:$3.54KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap