#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Lately, I keep revisiting the market action from 2022. The market was really tough back then—first, it dragged on with a slow decline and consolidation, taking a long time just to drop 50%, then finally caught a breath and formed a bottom, followed by a 46% rebound. Looking back now, the volatility back then was definitely much wilder than it is now.

Interestingly, a lot of tokens were also heavily oversold during that period.

The reason I keep studying that price movement is mainly because the price structures are really similar. This time, the pullback was only 36%—not as brutal—but the structural resemblance is high. If we simply extrapolate, and this round follows a similar fractal pattern, the rebound target is likely around 108K.

There’s a detail worth noting: both times, the market was suppressed by a long-term descending trendline, and meaningful rebounds only started after breaking above that line.

Based on these observations, I’ve adjusted my strategy—not in a rush. I plan to watch it oscillate and rebound first, and only consider going for a long-term short or setting up a grid strategy after the price can really hold above 100K.

Back in 2022, I got burned by a false breakout; I went in heavy, only to be forced to cut my losses, and it really hurt. This time, history might not repeat itself exactly, but after a trend finishes, the market usually enters a large range-bound phase—that pattern should still hold.

$ETH