2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Nov-28

The crypto index NWST1100 rose 8.62% last week. Bitcoin has posted a 21.24% loss, which is less severe than the losses seen across all other segments over the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing the 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures the performance of 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, key decision-making levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment are revealed:

The NWST1100 index gained 8.62% over the past week, but the rebound occurred after a deep multi-week decline and failed to break the structure of the broader downtrend. While NWSBCT (large-cap blue chips) broke out of its falling wedge, the broader market merely stabilized. The shallow retracement signals a weak corrective bounce rather than the start of a new trend Intraday moves were strong at times, but the underlying structure remained fragile. The Thanksgiving-week session likely benefitted from temporary institutional flow: enough buying to prevent deeper declines and produce a more constructive holiday backdrop, but not enough to establish real trend conviction. As a result, conditions improved modestly, with many oversold indicators lifting from extremes, but no decisive shift toward a new cycle emerged.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): The PPO lines have remained negative, and although the histogram ticked higher, it stayed near the zero line—consistent with stalling downward momentum, not a reversal.
The RSI rebounded from oversold conditions but stalled below neutral (around 37), confirming a lack of strength behind the bounce.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators: The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It shows continued deterioration in net money flow. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, stabilized but remains near cyclical lows (red arrow), indicating breadth has not turned sustainably upward.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across the major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have remained oversold, though slightly improved from extreme readings. This confirms the rebound was triggered by capitulation, but not yet supported by broad participation. Only 7-9% of constituents across major segments remain above their 50-day EMAs.

This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

📉 Summary

In Summary, despite a week of relief and several sharp intraday rallies, the crypto market remains in a corrective phase. Momentum is stabilizing but still weak, breadth is deeply oversold, and the NWST1100 rebound lacks structural depth, reaching only minor retracement levels. Early improvements appear tactical rather than foundational, and leadership remains narrow—centered primarily in NWSBCT. The market has transitioned from aggressive selling into tentative stabilization, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. This week’s outlook points toward the formation of a rounded bottom, indicating a gradual transition from selling pressure to early accumulation.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 37 last week and may start rising, indicating that downside pressure may be fading.
3. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, may climb. As the histogram climbs, it signals a progressive recovery in momentum, setting the stage for a more sustained upturn later in the month. PPO lines stay profoundly negative but rising within the red zone toward the zero line This pattern suggests downside momentum is slowing, though the PPO lines will likely remain below zero.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100): The ADVPL could be the first to show signs of rising inflows after an intense drop, and the McClellan Summation Index could start slowly rising near current levels

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

Most likely scenario: The NWST1100 is expected to retest the recent double-bottom region before extending toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and challenging Pivot P. Such a move would remain corrective rather than impulsive but would meaningfully reduce downside pressure. This path aligns with the gradual improvement in the PPO histogram and would likely produce a sequence of higher lows, consistent with an early base-building phase. A controlled rebound toward Pivot P (~6,600) appears probable. Should the index achieve sustained closes above Pivot P, the probability of a developing recovery phase would increase significantly, shifting the market from stabilization into constructive early-trend territory Overall, the market is likely transitioning from capitulation to stabilization. Sentiment remains fragile, but the combination of technical exhaustion, breadth stabilization, and favorable seasonal tendencies supports the view that the most acute phase of the correction may be behind us—setting the stage for a more constructive December.📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 5,800 (EMA 143, Pivot S1)
• Resistance: 6,600–6,700 (Pivot P 25-day EMA)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders rely on historical performance data to contextualize short-term moves and assess the relative strength of different market segments. The latest table shows that all categories experienced a technical relief rebound following heavy liquidation, with the NWST1100 index advancing 8.62% over the past week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, Bitcoin was the strongest performer over the past 30 days, declining 21.24%, which is less severe than the losses seen across all other segments. Ether and the index groups fell more sharply, placing Bitcoin at the top of the relative strength spectrum for the month.

While the broader market has trended sideways, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSL100 (Large Caps)led the market,

✔ NWS30, NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), and Ether have been improving.

✔ NWSCo100 (Coins) weakened.

✔ Bitcoin and NWSBE lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as measured by the NWST1100 index, to that of shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans multiple timeframes, providing insights into historical and recent performances and potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 49 Months Ago: Digital assets vastly outperformed global equities in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have underperformed equities by 29.6%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by the blue-dashed curve, stands at 10.49, while the current spot ratio is 8.40, which is lower than the long-term mean of 9.10, which has increased since October last year.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average prices’ quotient, which is below the long-run mean, could imply that digital assets are undervalued relative to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it provides a consistent benchmark for comparing historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has dropped by 18.35% over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a 13.9% loss from the current index price, because of unprofitable purchases at high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 16.68% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy of daily purchases would have yielded an 11.4% gain.
• Conclusion:

The recent pullback highlights a fundamental truth in crypto investing: market swings define opportunity. Historically, digital assets have significantly outperformed global equities, but their returns often come in concentrated bursts that follow periods of pessimism and capitulation. Prices have fallen below the 143-day EMA, positioning the market at a technically and psychologically critical juncture. Looking ahead, sentiment-driven capitulations often create conditions for stronger rebounds, especially when paired with structural oversold signals. While caution remains warranted in the short term, current price levels could present compelling opportunities for disciplined investors preparing for the next leg in crypto’s broader market cycle.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow