BTC is currently stuck at a critical position, with the technical analysts and the sentiment analysts locked in a fierce battle.

One camp claims that BTC has formed a "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily chart, which may first rebound to 112,000, then test the "neckline" at 100,000. Once it breaks below, it could drop to 83,000. The other camp believes that this decline is actually a "washout," mirroring the strategy from early 2024 - first forcing retail investors to cut losses, then initiating a vertical surge.

On-chain data is also interesting: there has been a large accumulation of buy orders in the price range of 100,500 to 101,000, with large holders ambushing here. At the same time, the Fear & Greed index has dropped to 15, indicating extreme fear — historically, such times are often bottom signals.

The current question is, is this a real drop or a fake fall? Can the 100,000 mark hold? In my opinion, this wave of turmoil in November does resemble last year's script; it all depends on whether the next step can replicate that "magic."