Wintermute: The macro background remains positive, but BTC needs to regain momentum for the market to have a broad basis for recovery.

On November 18, Wintermute released a report stating that the market mainly digested a sharp adjustment in the expectations for interest rate cuts in December over the past week—the probability of a rate cut plummeted from 70% to 42% within a week, during which macro data vacuum amplified the fluctuations. Powell's ambiguous statements regarding a rate cut in December forced the market to reassess the disagreements among FOMC members, revealing that there is far from a consensus on rate cuts. Risk assets weakened in response, with the crypto market, as a barometer of sentiment, being the hardest hit. In cross-asset performance, digital assets continued to lag. This weakness is not a new phenomenon: since early summer, crypto assets have consistently underperformed the stock market, partly due to their negative bias relative to the stock market. What's unusual is that during this round of decline, BTC and ETH have actually underperformed the overall altcoins, which can be attributed to: altcoins have been in a downward movement for quite some time; privacy coins and fee switches and other niche sectors are still showing some localized resilience. Some of the pressure comes from Whale position adjustments. Although there is a seasonal pattern of reduction from the fourth quarter to January of the following year, this year has clearly advanced, as many traders expect the four-year cycle theory to suggest that next year will enter a flat period. This consensus formation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: preemptive risk control behavior exacerbates the fluctuations. It needs to be clarified that the current selling pressure is not supported by a deterioration in fundamentals; it is purely a US-led macro-driven adjustment. Currently, the macro backdrop remains positive, with global easing continuing, US QT nearing its end, active fiscal stimulus channels, and Q1 liquidity expected to improve. The key signal missing from the market is the stabilization of leader assets—unless BTC returns to the upper band of the volatility range, it will be difficult for market breadth to expand, and the narrative logic will remain temporary. The current macro environment does not fit the characteristics of a lasting bear market, and as policy and interest rate expectations become the main catalysts, once leader assets regain momentum, the market will have a broad basis for recovery.