Why XRP Traders Are Eyeing the $3 Breakout in October

XRP just hit a critical juncture. After climbing 11% from $2.69 to establish a solid foothold above $2.80, the token is now compressing inside a descending triangle—and here’s where it gets interesting: the math suggests a 23% pop to $3.66 if buyers can push through the trendline.

The Technicals Are Lining Up

The $2.75-$2.80 zone isn’t random. Onchain data shows nearly 4.3 billion XRP traded hands in this exact band, meaning serious money is already staked here. This is the floor that matters. Above it, the next battleground is Fibonacci’s 0.618 retracement at $3—where the descending trendline also sits. Break that with volume, and you’re looking at a potential run to $3.40-$3.66.

Alpha Crypto Signal’s take: it’s a classic compression setup. Buyers are defending $2.80, sellers keep pushing down the trendline. One side has to blink first.

The SEC Catalyst Nobody’s Talking About

But here’s the kicker: the SEC is about to rule on six spot XRP ETF applications between October 18-25. Remember what happened when Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs got approved? Institutional money flooded in.

REX/Osprey’s XRPR product is already doing $38 million in first-day volume since September 18. That’s just a warm-up. If the SEC greenlight even a couple of these applications, expect a liquidity explosion. Even a partial approval—maybe one or two ETFs getting cleared—could be enough to shatter this triangle and trigger serious FOMO.

The Setup

So you’ve got two things happening simultaneously:

1. Technical breakout potential: Triangle compression + $2.80 support holding
2. Regulatory tailwind: SEC decisions due this month that could unlock institutional capital

October could be make-or-break for XRP. The 23% target to $3.66 assumes a clean breakout—but if ETF news hits right, all bets are off.

This is analysis, not financial advice. DYOR before you trade.