The "fee switch" of Uniswap Labs has been activated: a magical tactic or the next wave of narrative?

Author: Bruce

Original Title: Cost Switch, Opportunities and Prospects of Qimen Dao Uniswap Labs

Preface

The founder of Uniswap released the latest proposal early in the morning, which concerns the 7 failed fee switches over the past 2 years. Here, I would like to use @Michael_Liu93's content to explain this proposal and clarify the buyback:

• Burned 100 million coins, accounting for 10% of the total supply, approximately 950 million USD (to compensate for the previous unburned coins);
• Use 1/6 of the transaction fees for buyback and burn (5/6 goes to LP). In the past 30 days, there has been $230 million in transaction fee revenue, which annualizes to $2.76 billion; 1/6 of that would be $460 million annually used to buy back and burn UNI in the market. Based on the current market capitalization, the annual deflation rate is approximately less than 5% of the total token supply.
• Calculate the valuation multiple of $UNI , with a market cap of 9.5 billion, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 21x and a P/S ratio of 3.5x;
• Compared to hyperliquid, hyperliquid has a FDV of 42.1 billion, annual revenue of 1.29 billion, annual repurchase amount of 1.15 billion, P/E ratio of 37x, and P/S ratio of 33x;
• Compared to pump, pump has a FDV of 4.5 billion. The revenue from the meme business fluctuates greatly, ranging between 1-3 million over the past few months. Assuming a daily revenue of 1.5-2 million, the annualized revenue would be 550-730 million USD (100% buyback), corresponding to a P/E ratio and P/S ratio of around 6x-8x.
• The original text is here:

PE/PS of US listed companies

???‍♂️Please follow me as we break down the future prospects of @Uniswap?

Will the proposal pass?

![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6f8dc83d9ba5fd2d73fc32ee2b0dd265.webp(

)# ✅ Highly probable (over 80%)

1️⃣Core Palace Position auspicious ruler:

The value symbol falls into the Kun Palace, where the value symbol represents the highest decision-making body and the final outcome. The pattern is the Blue Dragon turning its head, which is an auspicious sign, indicating that it is the trend of the times and that success is inevitable. This pattern clearly points to the proposal being ultimately approved.

Both the day stem and the time stem have auspicious deities and rare stars, indicating a strong internal driving force within the community, and the quality of the proposal is appropriate for the timing.

2️⃣Opposing Forces Transformation:

The key opposing role (investor) has power in the situation, but the configuration of their palace position indicates that their stance has softened and shifted. With Tian Rui in the same palace as Jiu Tian, it indicates that their concerns have moved from “strong opposition” to “how to avoid risks during the process,” and their energy is more focused on seeking solutions rather than direct obstruction.

⚠️ Core issues that will be encountered during the process

Although it is highly probable to go through it, the process is far from smooth and will mainly face the following three major challenges, corresponding to the three positions in the Qimen chart:

1️⃣Final confirmation of legal and tax risks (core obstacle)

Situation: Dui Palace facing Tian Rui + Jing Men + Jiu Tian, indicating that the process in between requires a lot of verbal effort.

Corresponding to reality: This is precisely the core concern of investment institutions like @a16z. Before and after the voting, legal debates regarding the qualification of securities and DAO tax liabilities will reach a climax. It may be necessary to provide additional legal opinions or make adjustments to the proposal terms to fully alleviate the doubts of large institutions. This is the most time-consuming part of the entire process.

2️⃣LP (Liquidity Provider) community's rebound and reassurance

Situation: Zhen Palace facing Liuhe + Xiumen + Tianren.

Corresponding to reality: Some LPs may feel dissatisfied due to their earnings being diverted, and may even threaten to migrate their liquidity to competitors. Community governance needs to effectively communicate and explain the compensation mechanism (such as PFDA) and the rationale for phased implementation, to soothe these emotions and maintain the foundation of the protocol.

3️⃣ Competitors seizing the opportunity to attack and public opinion interference

Situation: Departure Palace facing the Cheng Snake + Injury Gate + Tianfu Star.

In reality: Competitors will take advantage of the “UNI sacrificing LP” point to create negative public opinion on social media, attempting to shake community consensus and divert users and liquidity.

What is the development prospect?

The overall trend can be summarized as follows: in the short term, there are significant fluctuations due to major positive stimuli; in the medium term, it experiences a spiral rise amidst value reassessment and intense competition; and in the long term, its development is deeply tied to the success or failure of unichain and the fate of the entire DeFi industry. Its journey is not a smooth one, but rather a process of gradually realizing its potential as a “DeFi blue-chip leader” after overcoming numerous obstacles.

??? Core Trend Interpretation

1️⃣Short-term trend (next 3 months): news-driven, fluctuating and consolidating

Severe Volatility: BQ Drop Palace (Jingmen + Jiutian), indicating a sudden surge triggered by proposal news. However, after the price spikes, there will inevitably be a pullback and fluctuations.

Key Points: The voting period of the next 22 days is a core observation window. The value of the scene door is in the exchange palace, ###– $7.5 is a short-term lifeline. If it can be maintained, there is hope for another upward attack after the proposal is passed.

Market sentiment and voting progress will dominate prices, with the trend primarily characterized by wide fluctuations, accumulating energy for the direction selection in the next phase.

2️⃣Medium-term trend (6 months - 2 years): Value re-evaluation, upward trend

Pattern Unveiled: The Jia Shen and Geng fall into the Kun Palace, with the Linzhi Fu and Tianying in effect. This pattern indicates that once the proposal is passed, it will attract mainstream capital attention and initiate a journey of value discovery.

6 months: Target price $7 – $25, corresponding market value $15 – $150 billion, achieving the baseline scenario.

1-2 years: If it can effectively capture protocol revenue and stabilize deflation, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $44.5 and move towards the range of $250 – $50 . The year 2026 (Bing Wu) will see filling of the palace, and policy and ecological benefits may resonate with each other.

Long-term trend (3-10 years): Ecology is king, destiny is bestowed.

Success Path: If @Unichain can successfully build an ecosystem that combines protocol revenue with on-chain value capture, $75 will no longer just be a transaction protocol token, but will upgrade to a core asset of Web3 financial infrastructure. The pattern of “value symbol guarding Kun, Green Dragon returning its head” in the Qimen Dunjia also supports its long-term leading position, with the price projected at $UNI – $200.

Mediocre Path: If one fails to break through in competition and can only maintain the existing market share, then $100 will become a high-quality “DeFi bond,” with its value supported by stable buyback and burn, and the price may fluctuate within the range of $UNI – $30 .

$60 Competitive Landscape: Moats and Breakthrough Points

Moat: The Kun Palace value symbol where @Uniswap is located represents its possession of the strongest brand, liquidity, and user habits, which is a gap that other competitors find it difficult to surpass in the short term.

Breakthrough Point: Competitors are in the exchange palace, Tianrui + Jiutian. Their high token incentive model (ve###3,3(), although aggressive, is unsustainable. The key to @Uniswap's breakthrough lies in leveraging technologies like V4 Hook and @Unichain for iteration, creating new sources of value without severely harming LP returns, achieving “both fish and bear's paw.”

) Core Risk Warning

Governance risk: The greatest uncertainty still lies in the voting. Although the probability is high, the Duma's obstruction requires vigilance against major players like @a16z raising new legal concerns at the last moment.

Competitive risk: Zhen Gong Liu He + Xiu Men, suggesting that other protocols may unite to seize liquidity. If the fee switch leads to a significant loss of LPs, it will undermine the fundamentals.

Macroeconomic and regulatory risks: Kan Palace Xuanwu + Surprise Gate, we need to be wary of black swan events in global regulatory policies after 2026, as well as the systemic risks of the Crypto market's own bull-bear transitions.

Prospective Analysis: Success or Failure in Ecological Integration

??? Uniswap: The Value Return and Guardian Battle of the DeFi Dominator

Core Outlook: The protocol will completely transform from a “governance tool” to an “income-generating asset,” completing the closed loop of value capture, but its liquidity throne is facing unprecedented challenges.

![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-d9f0c3e33c27349c3eaa786adce17639.webp(

Uniswap Protocol Revenue

)# 1️⃣ Value Restructuring (1-2 Year Golden Window)

Pattern Positioning: Kun Palace “Value Symbol + Wu Bing Qinglong Returns”, this signifies the return of the king and a re-evaluation of value. The opening of the cost switch is the key to igniting this trend. ### will shed the label of “worthless governance token” and become a core asset with clear cash flow and deflationary expectations.

Valuation target: Based on an annual repurchase and destruction of hundreds of millions of dollars, its price-to-earnings ratio (PE) will converge from the current 2.2x (cost basis) towards traditional technology stocks (20-30x). It is highly probable that the market capitalization will return to its previous high ($44.5) within 1-2 years, with medium to long-term potential to challenge the range of $75-$UNI .

$100 # 2️⃣ Moat Guard (Core Conflict)

Risks: Dui Palace Tian Rui + Nine Heavens, competitors are launching a fierce attack with extremely high capital efficiency (ve###3,3( model). @Uniswap's strategy of sacrificing part of LP earnings for protocol revenue is a double-edged sword.

The key to success or failure lies in whether we can create new revenue sources sufficient to offset the costs of fees for LPs through innovations such as V4 Hook and PFDA auctions. If successful, the moat will be strengthened; if not, it will fall into a negative spiral of liquidity loss.

⛓️ Unichain: An Ecological Breakthrough Battle in the Face of Danger

Core Outlook: This is a high-risk gamble; success could open up a trillion-dollar valuation space, while failure may result in becoming a mediocre “backup chain.”

) Unichain revenue status

Opportunities and Ambition

Pattern positioning: Gen Palace “Open Door + White Tiger + Tianpeng”. Open Door signifies huge market opportunities and new narratives, while Tianpeng suggests bold speculation and expansion, implying that @Unichain aims to resolve the mainnet performance bottlenecks and value capture issues through a dedicated chain model, building new ecological barriers.

Imagination Space: If @Unichain can deeply bind its sorter revenue, V4 native advantages, and the ### token economy, it will no longer be just a chain, but rather the value settlement layer of the entire @Uniswap ecosystem, with potential far exceeding that of a simple DEX protocol.

$UNI # 2️⃣ Risks and Challenges

The situation is perilous: the White Tiger signifies intense competition and a sense of oppression, indicating that @Unichain will face the crushing pressure of mature L2 ecosystems such as @base, @Arbitrum, and @Optimism. Tianpeng also raises concerns of “excessive speculation” and “security vulnerabilities.”

Core challenge: Ecological cold start: How to attract top applications other than @Uniswap itself to settle in and form a network effect is a matter of life and death.

Value Proof: Can the annual income of ### million from the sorter in the initial stage support the huge costs of chain development and maintenance, and benefit the $750 holders?

Symbiotic relationship: one prospers, all prosper; one suffers, all suffer.

Successful Scenario (70% probability): @Uniswap relies on its brand and liquidity to stabilize its user base, delivering initial users and credibility to @Unichain; @Unichain, in turn, feeds back to @Uniswap by offering lower transaction costs and more flexible Hook applications, strengthening its leading position and opening up new revenue streams. The two form a flywheel, with $UNI becoming the universal key to the value of the entire ecosystem.

Failure Scenario (30% probability): @Uniswap suffers liquidity loss due to the fee switch, and market share is eroded; @Unichain experiences stagnation due to ecological scarcity. The two drag each other down, and the value return story of $UNI ends in disappointment.

??? Key Observations for Future Evolution

• Early December 2025: The final voting results of the fee switch proposal and the immediate market reaction.
• Mid-2026: Adoption rate of V4 and early deployment on @Unichain.
• 2027: Will Unichain's independent TVL and number of native applications be able to form its own ecosystem.

$UNI Uniswap Labs' ultimate fate: spin-off listing?

In the future, Uniswap Labs plans to spin off part of its business (such as @Unichain development and front-end services) into independent companies and seek an IPO, which is a highly likely path.

✅ Factors Favoring Listing (Probability: Approximately 60%-70%)

1️⃣ The board shows “Open the door” can be opened.

The Geng Ba Palace, representing the actions of Uniswap Labs, itself carries the meaning of “opening the door”. This door leads to new organizations, new opportunities, and collaborations. The decision to spin off part of the business into a company corresponds to this symbol.

The Tiangong Star falls into this palace, indicating bold capital operations and expansion, showing that the Labs team has sufficient ambition and motivation to drive initiatives involving huge financing.

2️⃣ The value carrier is clear, avoiding core conflicts.

This move cleverly separates the “protocol governance rights” (belonging to the ### token) from the “technical services and development rights” (belonging to the listed company's equity). The listed company can clearly use its technical capabilities, software development income, and future earnings from @Unichain's ranking system as the basis for valuation, no longer directly tied to the securities attributes of the $UNI token, thereby resolving the most critical regulatory contradictions.

3️⃣ There are successful precedents to follow

Just like the relationship between @Coinbase and @Base, as well as the earlier relationship between @ethereum and @Consensys. @Consensys, as the core development force of the Ethereum ecosystem, has undergone multiple rounds of financing and has often been rumored to go public. This provides a clear blueprint for Uniswap Labs.

⚠️ Challenges and Risks Faced (Obstacles Remain)

1️⃣Market Competition and Pressure

The appearance of the White Tiger in the Gen Palace indicates that even if it is listed separately, this process will be accompanied by extremely fierce market competition and immense external pressure. The capital market will compare it with companies like @Coinbase and scrutinize its profitability and growth potential.

The subtle balance of the pattern

Publicly listed companies still need to rely heavily on the brand and ecosystem of the @Uniswap protocol. Ensuring that the interests of publicly listed companies align with those of the decentralized community will be a major governance challenge. If the actions of publicly listed companies harm the interests of the protocol (such as charging excessively high fees), it will provoke strong opposition from the $UNI community, undermining the foundation.

3️⃣ Business Independence and Valuation Basis

The capital market will ask: What is the core barrier of this company? If it is just a front-end service provider for the @Uniswap protocol, its value is limited. It must prove that it has technological advantages and revenue sources independent of the protocol (such as the exclusive operation rights of @Unichain, cross-chain technology patents, etc.) in order to achieve a high valuation.

$UNI written at the end✍️

At the crossroads of DeFi, Uniswap Labs is unlocking the golden era of value capture with the fee switch as the key: the proposal is likely to pass, and ### will transform from a governance tool into a yield-bearing asset, breaking through in partnership with the @Unichain ecosystem, creating a flywheel effect of shared success. Furthermore, if Labs successfully spins off and goes public, this will alleviate regulatory constraints, inject vitality from mainstream capital, and propel $UNI to new heights. However, success or failure depends on community consensus, competitive guardianship, and the guidance of fate.

Are you ready to witness the return of the DeFi king and the rise of the Web3 financial empire?