The ASTER Airdrop is coming, and after the community got all fired up, I can't shake the feeling that something is off. On the surface, this operation can bring heat to the project party, but in reality? It's definitely an Unfavourable Information signal in the short term.

First, let's look at the data: this Airdrop directly increases the circulating supply by 1.5%. The market is already lukewarm, and with so many tokens suddenly flooding in, who would willingly take over? What's worse is that it will be released linearly over 6 weeks, which means there will be new selling pressure every day for the next month and a half. Moreover, December is also a peak period for concentrated withdrawals, and at that time, sell orders will pile up even more densely.

The technical analysis also does not provide any optimistic reasons. The price has clearly broken out of a downward channel, with a 3.67% pullback yesterday, and the key support at 1.0500 is precarious. At this time, conducting an airdrop essentially provides more ammunition to the bears.

My view is simple: in a downtrend, all seemingly "favorable" information is often the last escape window. If you have spot positions, reducing your holdings on rebounds is wiser than holding on for dear life; if you want to catch the bottom, wait a moment and let the airdrop party finish dumping their chips first; as for shorting, around 1.1300 might be a good entry point.

When the price falls thoroughly and the selling pressure is completely digested, it won't be too late to discuss bottom fishing then.