The end of the U.S. government shutdown may become the "super fuel" for the restart of the Bitcoin bull run: price predictions under the logic of liquidity release.

1. Liquidity Pump: The Financial Shock Mechanism of Government Shutdown

As of November 7, the U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted 38 days, setting a new historical record. The liquidity crisis triggered by this political deadlock is reshaping the landscape of the crypto market. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has hoarded over $1 trillion in cash due to inability to spend, a figure that has increased by over 233% compared to the $300 billion during the 2018-2019 shutdown. This unusual liquidity withdrawal mechanism is creating dual pressure:

1. Direct siphoning effect: For every additional 1 dollar added to TGA, it means recovering 1 dollar of liquidity from the financial system. The current cash hoarding exceeding one trillion is equivalent to implementing multiple rounds of disguised interest rate hikes, with a tightening effect comparable to the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tightening.

2. Market Chain Reaction: The sudden decrease in liquidity in the banking system has led to a surge in money market interest rates. The overnight repurchase rate peaked at 4.27%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's excess reserves rate. This liquidity crunch has directly transmitted to the risk asset markets, with Bit falling over 20% in the 30 days following its peak of $126,000 on October 6, breaking below the 200-day moving average, and showing signs of a technical bear market.

It is worth noting that the selling behavior of whale investors has intensified market panic. In the past month, long-term holders net sold over 400,000 Bit, equivalent to an asset transfer of approximately $3.8 billion in market value. This pattern of "old whales transferring chips to new institutional investors," while not triggering a traditional collapse, is continuously exhausting market confidence.

2. Liquidity Reboot: The Domino Effect of the Halt Ending

When the political deadlock is broken and the government restarts, the "reservoir" of TGA accounts will begin to release. This liquidity release will create a multiplier effect through three mechanisms:

1. Fiscal spending restarts: The Ministry of Finance needs to raise funds by issuing national bonds, but to lower financing costs, the Federal Reserve may inject liquidity through tools such as the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). This "invisible quantitative easing" operational model is highly similar to the response during the 2020 pandemic crisis, when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded by $2.8 trillion within three months.

2. Credit Expansion Drive: To maintain the sustainability of $38 trillion in debt, the U.S. needs to achieve a nominal GDP growth of 6%-7%, which means an annual increase of $4 trillion in credit. If financial engineering measures are adopted (such as adjusting SLR regulations or exempting foreign investors from withholding tax), it will indirectly increase market liquidity.

3. Weak Dollar Expectations: The implementation of a "weak dollar" policy to dilute debt burden will increase the allocation demand for Bitcoin as an anti-inflation asset. Historical data shows that after the end of the 2018-2019 shutdown, a resurgence in liquidity drove Bitcoin to rebound by 15% within a month.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the government shutdown is most likely to end in mid-November, at which time the scale of liquidity released could reach historic levels. Referring to the case in early 2021 when the rapid consumption of the U.S. Treasury cash balance drove a surge in the stock market, this time the liquidity rebound may trigger a "rebound rally" in risk assets.

3. Policy-driven long-term logic: Bull run supported by debt expansion

The current logic behind Bitcoin's rise has transcended pure market supply and demand, evolving into an inevitable product of macroeconomic policies:

1. Debt Spiral: The total U.S. debt has exceeded $38 trillion, increasing by nearly $2 trillion annually. Maintaining debt sustainability requires systematically suppressing real interest rates, which will give rise to a sustained demand for liquidity expansion.

2. Inflation hedge demand: To achieve a nominal GDP growth rate of 6%-7%, large-scale credit expansion is required. In this environment of excessive money supply, Bitcoin's fixed supply characteristic makes it a natural anti-inflation asset.

3. Background of Currency Wars: The global process of de-dollarization is accelerating, and the promotion of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) by various countries will exacerbate the relative depreciation pressure on the US dollar. As "digital gold," the strategic value of Bit in the restructuring of the monetary system is becoming prominent.

4. Market Discrepancies and Risk Warnings

Despite the seemingly perfect logic of liquidity release, there are still significant divergences in the market:

1. Short-term risk: If the shutdown continues until December, it may trigger an economic recession, leading to Bitcoin filling the $92,000 CME futures gap. Current market depth data shows that there are about $2.5 billion in open contracts at this price level.

2. Valuation Dispute: Some traders believe that the current valuation of Bitcoin has overdrawn future expectations. Although institutions like Bitwise maintain target prices of $100,000 by the end of 2024 and $250,000 by the end of 2025, the market needs to digest the current TGA liquidity exceeding one trillion.

3. Regulatory variables: If the volatility in the crypto market intensifies during the suspension period, it may prompt regulatory agencies to accelerate the introduction of restrictive policies, which will become a potential variable in the bull run process.

5. Investment Strategy Recommendations

Under the expectation of liquidity reboot, investors can adopt the following strategies:

1. Core Position Holding: Considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (April 2024), long-term investors should maintain their core positions.

2. Swing Trading: Use the CME futures gap around $92,000 as a tactical entry opportunity, but strict stop-loss measures must be set.

3. Diversification: Increase exposure to Bitcoin in the risk asset portfolio, but keep it within 15%-20% of the total position.

4. Monitor liquidity indicators: Closely track changes in TGA balances, overnight interest rate fluctuations, and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet; these indicators will provide the best entry points.

Conclusion: The Resonance of Historical Cycles and Policy Turning Points

The current Bitcoin market is at the intersection of historical cycles and policy turning points. The liquidity drain caused by the government shutdown has reached a critical point, and once the political deadlock is broken, the released liquidity could trigger a bull run similar to that of 2020-2021. However, the costs behind this "liquidity flood"—the continuously expanding debt scale and potential regulatory risks—should not be ignored. For investors, understanding this political-economic-financial trio may be key to grasping the next bull run. #比特币走势 U.S. government shutdown #流动性危机 policy-driven #市场预测# GateWeb3Launchpad BOB launch ##广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #加密市场回调