$1 TRILLION LIQUIDITY SHOCK IS COMING

36 days

That’s how long the U.S. government has been shut down the longest in history

But the part no one’s talking about

When Washington shuts down, spending halts

Salaries

Defense contracts

Infrastructure payout

Everything freezes

But the cash doesn’t vanish

It piles up inside the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Fed

And that account now holds almost $1 trillion in idle money the second-highest since Covid stimulus

When the shutdown ends, that dam bursts

That’s weeks of backlogged spending federal paychecks, contractor invoices, defense budgets all hitting the economy at once

In 2020, a smaller TGA drawdown unleashed one of the biggest liquidity waves in modern history

This time It’s bigger

Global liquidity is already rising

Fed halts QT on Dec 1

Global M2 ticking higher

ETFs pulling billions into risk assets

When the Treasury starts spending again, liquidity flows out of the Fed and into the banking system

Reserves rise

Credit loosens

Markets breathe again

It’s equivalent of a $1T cannon aimed at financial markets

and if history repeats might be ignition point for next risk rally

liquidity spring is rising up

When it releases, you’ll want to be positioned before it hits