Analysis of Major Trends and Projects in the Web3 Field

Looking back at the predictions made a year ago regarding the main trends, it can be said that some predictions have been realized. Currently, the main and secondary trends in the Web3 field are roughly as follows:

1. Stablecoins and Tokenization of Real-World Assets ( RWA )

The most noteworthy projects in this field currently include:

• CRCL: Essentially a bet on Circle's position in the stablecoin market. Although the current price of $135 may not seem cheap from a market capitalization and profit perspective, considering the potential for 5-8 times expansion in the stablecoin market over the next five years, along with the recent significant drop from $300 to $108, it may now be a relatively good entry opportunity.

• PlasmaFDN: As the only investable Tether-related asset currently, Plasma greatly surpasses its competitors in terms of fundraising scale, ecological development, and social influence. The locked amount after the mainnet launch is expected to reach 300-400 million USD. Although the current presale/contract price of 6 billion USD is also not cheap, considering that the stablecoin market may reach a trillion scale in the coming years, the competition for the leading position of stablecoin public chains will be an important point of interest.

• ENA: As a representative of decentralized stablecoins, Ethena is worth paying attention to. Its USDE has surpassed 13.5 billion USD, and the fundamental indicators are stable. In addition, its centralized stablecoin USDTB is also about to surpass 2 billion USD, and there are future positive factors such as its own RWA public chain Converge.

• Ondo: As the only platform currently offering 24/7 trading of US stocks with no KYC requirements, Ondo has a unique advantage in the RWA field. If you are optimistic about the trend of borderless US stocks on the blockchain, Ondo is one of the few investable options.

2. AI Agent

Although some AI Agent projects predicted last year, such as Goat and ai16Z, were short-lived, this year has indeed seen some AI Agent projects with potential product-market fit, such as HeyAnonai, Gizatech, Almanak, and ReiNetwork in the Web3 space.

What I am most concerned about is the Bittensor halving event early next year. If there is a price low around that time, it might be a good entry opportunity. As a leading project, Bittensor currently has 3-4 subnetworks that have started generating income, and overall, it remains the most promising project to achieve breakthroughs in the Web3 AI field.

3. Meme Coin

Meme coins have maintained their popularity since last year, and this year has even seen a situation where various launchpads and Pumps are competing in the market. However, Pump still holds a leading position and has begun to venture into the live streaming space, taking the Web3 version of TikTok route. In the Meme coin sector, although short-term opportunities change daily, in the long run, Pump remains the only project worth paying attention to.

4. Prediction Market

In addition to the three major trends mentioned above, prediction markets are emerging as a potential new trend. Polymarket's data continues to grow, and Kalshi's performance over the past month has been particularly impressive, significantly outpacing Polymarket. Dozens of new prediction market projects have emerged in the primary market, and a HIP-4 proposal for event prediction markets has also appeared on Hyperliquid. Some experts believe that the development of prediction markets could disrupt the traditional insurance industry, as it allows users to directly engage with and hedge transparent probabilities and risk exposures.

However, there is currently a lack of investable targets in the secondary market in this field, and we can only wait for projects like Polymarket to issue tokens. It is reported that Polymarket has reached a valuation of $3 billion.

Conclusion

From another perspective, the core theme of this round may be projects that “truly have income and profits and buy back tokens.” From this angle, Hype and Pump may be the only two tokens worth investing in.

In addition, in the stablecoin/RWA space, besides the projects mentioned earlier, Tempo is also worth paying attention to. While it was previously thought that it might not issue a token, the latest information suggests that Tempo may ultimately issue a token. The optimism towards Tempo is mainly based on Stripe as the strongest distribution channel for B2B services for millions of merchants, as well as the direct involvement of Paradigm, the most technically capable and well-known VC in the industry, in building it (rather than just investing).

The “招商” battle of Hyperliquid's stablecoin has already proven to the market the importance of channels beyond issuance for stablecoins. In the future, the stablecoin public chain may form a pattern of dual dominance with Plasma (To C) and Tempo (To B).