The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts in October, but this may not be enough to support a sustained market rebound. The real key lies in the direction of quantitative tightening (QT) policy.

Although interest rate cuts can provide short-term liquidity stimulus, if QT continues, long-term liquidity will still be continuously lost. Since the initiation of QT in mid-2022, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shrunk from over $9 trillion to around $6.6 trillion, equivalent to continuously withdrawing liquidity from the market. This long-term liquidity contraction may offset the short-term benefits brought by interest rate cuts, making it difficult for risk assets such as the stock market and cryptocurrencies to achieve significant rebounds.

Analysts believe that only the simultaneous implementation of interest rate cuts and the termination of QT can truly boost market confidence. Ending QT can not only avoid a repeat of the 2019 repo market crisis but also alleviate the selling pressure in the bond market, reduce long-term yields, and create a synergistic effect with interest rate cuts. For the cryptocurrency market, an improved liquidity environment will directly enhance demand for risk assets, potentially driving a significant increase in market capitalization.

Currently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has signaled a leaning towards easing, indicating that QT 'may be nearing its end', while expressing concerns about a cooling labor market, further strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts. However, Powell has not yet provided a specific timeline for the termination of QT, indicating that the Federal Reserve is still seeking a balance between economic stimulus and inflation control.

The future market trends will mainly depend on the policy choices of the Federal Reserve:
1. If interest rate cuts are implemented without terminating QT, the market may experience a brief rise followed by a decline, and overall sentiment will remain weak.
2. If the interest rate cuts and the end of QT occur simultaneously, it will clearly convey a signal of a shift towards a loose monetary policy, which may trigger a sustained rise in U.S. growth stocks, technology stocks, and cryptocurrencies.

Therefore, investors should not only focus on the probability of interest rate cuts; the signal of the end of QT policy is the core factor in determining whether the market can achieve a true rebound. Closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction, especially the statements from the Federal Open Market Committee, will help in grasping future market trends.