Tonight, Fed Chairman Powell is about to deliver an important speech, but the current situation is extraordinarily complex. The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for several days, resulting in interruptions to key economic data such as CPI and non-farm employment, which may force the Fed's decisions to rely on speculation and intuition.

This situation is extremely rare in history, and the last similar scenario can be traced back to the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, due to lagging and distorted data, the Fed misjudged the market situation, ultimately leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and turmoil in the global financial markets.

Currently, there are two potential risk factors: first, the second round of federal employee layoffs promoted by the government may lead to a more severe actual situation in the job market than the official unemployment rate data of 4.1%, with the real unemployment situation potentially being severely underestimated. Second, due to statistical characteristics, housing inflation data is lagging, and the actual inflation level felt by the general public may be much higher than the official published data.

Powell's speech may develop in two directions: if he maintains a hawkish stance and emphasizes controlling inflation, the market may experience significant volatility, and investors may need to reduce their risk assets and increase cash holdings. Conversely, if he shifts to a dovish stance and focuses on employment risks, those growth assets that have already been oversold may see a short-term rebound, and investors should be prepared to seize this opportunity.

This crisis is different from previous ones, with risks hidden in a 'data black box', making it highly covert. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics tonight and prepare for responses in advance. In this uncertain environment, it is crucial to remain vigilant and flexible.