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The latest minutes from the Fed's September meeting provide important signals to the market, indicating that the monetary policy may be shifting towards a more accommodative stance. Although there are some differences among policymakers regarding the future interest rate path, the overall tone leans dovish.
Key information in the minutes includes:
1. A weak labor market has become a major factor driving most decision-makers to lean towards further interest rate cuts.
2. It is widely believed that the current policy is no longer in a state of "excessive tightening."
3. Most officials believe that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates once or twice more in the coming months.
4. A few officials with a hawkish stance advocate maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
The signals released in this summary indicate that while the Fed has yet to reach a consensus on the specific timing and pace of interest rate cuts, the global liquidity inflection point has become clear. This policy shift expectation is likely to provide sustained support for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold, as well as safe-haven assets.
It is worth noting that the continued weakness in employment data may become a key factor driving the Fed to further relax its monetary policy. While the specific timetable for interest rate cuts remains uncertain, the market generally expects a more accommodative monetary environment in 2024.
As global liquidity trends shift, investors should closely monitor the Fed's subsequent policy signals, as these signals will continue to dominate the direction of the next market trend. The Fed's decisions will undoubtedly play a key role in shaping the future economic and financial market landscape.