💸 Fengshen Chat Trading— #BTC#  2025.09.16

Intraday Analysis
1️⃣ Structure Interpretation
Technically, 113500 is a critical level for Bitcoin. If it falls below this level, then long positions will disappear, and one must be cautious of a deeper pullback. The short-term bulls are pushing in the early session, and although the rebound is weak, there is a scent of conspiracy here. Overall, the market is oscillating with a bullish bias (leaning towards the bulls), but key levels should be the deciding factor.

2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
ETF Capital Situation: In recent days, there has been a continuous large net inflow into BTC spot ETFs, with significant institutional buying. Market research/ETF tracking institutions indicate that last week saw significant inflows into ETFs, becoming an important driver of this round of price increase.

Whales/On-chain: It has been observed on-chain that whales are selling in batches at high positions (media reports indicate a significant selling pressure event this month), while there is also a coexistence of institutional/long-term address absorption and withdrawals, indicating that "institutional buying + individual large cash-outs" are both present, which will amplify short-term volatility.

Market sentiment/risk points: Glassnode/Santiment indicators suggest that the underlying buying confidence remains shallow, with most chips in the profit zone, and there is short-term pressure for profit-taking.

3️⃣ Intraday Trading Thought
Bull (Main Strategy)
Condition: Price pulls back to 113800–113300 and shows signs of bottoming (lower shadow or engulfing).
Stop loss: If it is "actually broken" and effectively closes below 113300, exit completely.
Target: First target 116,250–116,700. If there is a significant breakout and stabilization above, continue to look towards the vicinity of 118k.

Short (Alternative)
Condition: Price rushes to the 116,250–116,700 pressure zone but does not increase in volume, showing an upper shadow or engulfing.
Stop Loss: If the price breaks through and closes above 116,700 with increased volume, immediately stop loss and exit the short position.
Objective: Review the recent 113800–113300
Position reminder: Gradually increase the position, strictly adhere to daily risk control.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
Although the inflow of ETFs provides support, on-chain activity and buying depth still indicate that the "upward momentum is weak." If the Federal Reserve or macro data shows negative signs (or if whales focus on selling to cash out), prices could quickly fall back. Be sure to set stop losses and control your position.


[For reference only, not as investment advice]